GOP Pollster: New Prop. 8 Language Bodes Well for Measure’s Defeat

While Sarah Palin and Hurricane Gustav dominated talk on the abbreviated opening day of the 2008 Republican National Convention, a prominent Republican pollster confirmed that the recent change of language describing Proposition 8 was a positive one. At a forum on voter turnout in Minneapolis on Monday, Stephen M. Kinney, a longtime California researcher and a partner at Public Opinion Strategies, acknowledged that describing the ballot measure’s effect as eliminating the right to same-sex marriage would bode well for its defeat.

"You guys really lucked out -- I can guarantee you it’s going to make a major difference," Kinney told The Advocate at the Pew Center on the States event, where topics such as voting-machine vulnerabilities and the impact of first-time voters were addressed by various experts. After the California Supreme Court legalized same-sex marriage in May, state attorney general Jerry Brown changed the description of Prop. 8 that will appear on ballots in November to reflect the fact that the measure will “eliminate [the] right of same-sex couples to marry." Formerly the wording simply affirmed that “only marriage between a man and a woman is valid or recognized." (Attesting to the importance of the language, Prop. 8 supporters sued to keep the original description but were denied.)

Kinney, who's conducted polling for former California governor Pete Wilson and many other Republicans in the state -- and whose colleague, Bill McInturff, is the chief pollster for John McCain's presidential campaign -- added that Prop. 8 is energizing voters on both sides of the same-sex-marriage debate, particularly the older white males and Hispanic women who tend to favor the initiative and the libertarian types who tend to oppose it. He also said that young voters, defined as between the ages of 18 and 29 and who typically support gay rights, would definitely turn out on Election Day, contrary to long-standing patterns.

Nationwide, Democrats have seen an increase of 192% in young people registered to vote in 2008 than in 2004, substantially dwarfing those who’ve registered to vote as Republicans since the last presidential election. And while many observers wonder if they’ll actually cast a ballot come November 4, Kinney has no doubts that they will. "Every indication we have is that they’ll show up, because their man won," he said, referring to Democratic nominee Barack Obama. Surely that's another positive sign for opponents of Prop. 8.