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Prop. 8 Lessons

L.A. Gay and Lesbian Center CEO Lorri L. Jean explains what the new Prop. 8 analysis means for changing the grassroots game plan and winning over voters.

LORRI L JEAN X390 (OUT) | ADVOCATE.COM

All of us who were significantly involved in the effort to defeat Proposition 8 have reflected a great deal upon the lessons learned in that campaign. Now, thanks to an in-depth analysis by Dave Fleischer, who has more experience fighting anti-LGBT ballot measures than anyone in the country, the LGBT community has some invaluable insight into what it will take in California if we hope to repeal Proposition 8 at the ballot box, and how communities fighting or anticipating anti-LGBT ballot measures across the nation must prepare.

Two points in the report were most surprising to me:
(1) The election wasn’t really as close as the numbers suggest.
(2) An astounding number of people who were on our side early in the campaign — and from a demographic perspective presumed to be among our strongest supporters — switched their position later in the campaign.

The data establish that the election wasn’t as close as we thought because of “wrong-way voting.” Large numbers of people who opposed “gay marriage” mistakenly voted no. Far fewer people on our side inadvertently opposed the freedom to marry with a yes vote. If we correct for voter intent, our side actually lost the election by eight points rather than four. This means we have a much greater gap to bridge before it will be strategically sound to muster a repeal effort. Remember, in a measure to repeal Prop. 8, there will be no confusion about how to vote. A yes vote will mean yes to marriage for same-sex couples and a no vote will mean no.

As LGBT activists and our allies prepared for the fight over marriage that would become Prop. 8, those involved in the campaign knew victory would be an uphill battle. No such measure anywhere in the nation had ever been defeated, and in California, just eight years before, a statutory measure with identical language (Prop. 22) was passed by a margin of 23 points.

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Reader Comments
  • Name: Hugh
    Date posted: 8/5/2010 1:14:42 PM
    Hometown: Dallas

    Comment:

    I think Lorri Jean, like all of our community leaders, sit around a big table, plan strategies that sound good to those in the room, and then go forward. As I've watched these campaigns, especially the media portion, I keep finding myself asking how this is going to appeal to the voter that isn't ours, or who is undecided. And even more especially when those commercials show gay couples with children. Their thought being: voters will see these poor children of same sex couples without "married parents" and then vote our way in order to save the children. NO! These people don't even think we should be "teaching" children in the public schools, or interacting with them in general, much less raising them. Showing our "families" just gives them one more insurmountable hurdle to overcome before they vote for us. IF I were one of those recalcitrant voters I would be thinking, "why did you bring an innocent child into this mess." Not, "oh lordy me. That couple needs to be able to marry."

  • Name: Bryan
    Date posted: 8/5/2010 5:48:31 AM
    Hometown: Pasadena CA

    Comment:

    Ah, yes, Lorri Jean explains it all to us. A member of the aging group that failed to understand you need to get OUT of the Weho ghetto to engage voters who might "swing" our way. A person who vetted Patrick Guerriero of Log Cabin fame to head up No on 8...with predictable results. Nobody came to speak in my locale about Prop 8, and certainly not Lorri Jean. When I tried to volunteer at the Weho station on Santa Monica Blvd. in the Trader Joe's center, no one spoke to me, tried to engage me, or even look up from their desks. I made an attempt to chat cheerfully with one staffer, who wanted to know where I lived and worked, and was apparently unhappy with my answers of Pasadena and Riverside. I got no response from anyone at that location after that brush-off. And Lorri Jean wonders why we lost? Isn't it time for you to retire to Palm Springs?

  • Name: Bryan
    Date posted: 8/5/2010 5:47:36 AM
    Hometown: Pasadena CA

    Comment:

    Ah, yes, Lorri Jean explains it all to us. A member of the aging group that failed to understand you need to get OUT of the Weho ghetto to engage voters who might "swing" our way. A person who vetted Patrick Guerriero of Log Cabin fame to head up No on 8...with predictable results. Nobody came to speak in my locale about Prop 8, and certainly not Lorri Jean. When I tried to volunteer at the Weho station on Santa Monica Blvd. in the Trader Joe's center, no one spoke to me, tried to engage me, or even look up from their desks. I made an attempt to chat cheerfully with one staffer, who wanted to know where I lived and worked, and was apparently unhappy with my answers of Pasadena and Riverside. I got no response from anyone at that location after that brush-off. And Lorri Jean wonders why we lost? Isn't it time for you to retire to Palm Springs?

  • Name: Hugh
    Date posted: 8/5/2010 2:21:21 AM
    Hometown: Dallas

    Comment:

    The above strategy has been used over 30 times in the last decade and gone down in flames EVERY SINGLE TIME! Here in Texas the brilliant minds shepherding our anti gay marriage vote in '06 named our campaign-for-gay-marriage; are you ready, wait for it, wait for it... "No Nonsense in November". What the hell does that even mean??? Does that say anything about the issue? What side is that even from? Does it mean "no nonsense" as in no gay marriage? What "nonsense" is it even referring to? Streets with potholes, property taxes, deed restrictions? If it was meant to confuse voters and garner "wrong way voters", then maybe you could say, "Mission Accomplished". But I don't think even the gay voters knew what to do with that and how to vote. Jeez. We got thumped with 76% of voters voting for the anti-gay state constitutional amendment prohibiting gay marriage. We could have at least done done some educating on our way down... Time for some new ideas.

  • Name: Mike
    Date posted: 8/4/2010 12:07:24 PM
    Hometown: West Hollywood

    Comment:

    Lies, hate and fear will get you the votes every time. "It's about the children" will almost guarantee a win whether is about marriage, school construction, teacher salaries, you-name-it. The marriage equality group needs "straight" campaigners and pollsters because the gays are too close to the issue to see the reality out there. I hope lessons were really learned. Equality for all is the foundation of our Constitution.

  • Name: KevinSF
    Date posted: 8/4/2010 9:09:28 AM
    Hometown: San Francisco

    Comment:

    Isn’t this the gal that went on an extended vacation right before the Prop 8 battle reached its winning zenith? Then wouldn’t comment about her part in the horrible mismanagement of the No on 8 campaign.

  • Name: Hugh
    Date posted: 8/4/2010 2:07:50 AM
    Hometown: Dallas

    Comment:

    "The sad truth is that the real danger to children isn’t equality under the law for same-sex couples. It’s the harm done to LGBT children and to the kids of LGBT parents by discrimination that leaves families unprotected and relegates them to second-class status." That statement, from Lore Gene in the article above, is exactly why we will lose again when this goes before the voters. You can not, as a gay couple, adopt or have children, then throw those children up to voters and say, "Protect my family. Let my children's parents marry!" That is a losing argument. Leave your children out of this. They didn't ask for this fight. We have to appeal to voters as if we were members of their own families. Their own children. Their own brothers and sisters. Because we are. As long as we continue to hold ourselves out as some distant alien community we should also get use to our second class citizenship. Because that's all we'll get.

  • Name: Mark
    Date posted: 8/3/2010 6:44:33 PM
    Hometown: WF

    Comment:

    It is against the US Constitution for the majority to vote on the civil rights of the minority. We must sue sue sue sue sue in every court in the land to have DOMA and these ballot initiative votes overturned by the courts. We also must support liberal Democrats in their bids for office. That is our only hope of having liberal judges appointed to the bench. Finally, we must stop only moving on the defensive and start working on the offensive. Let's begin campaigns to take away the tax exempt status of "religions" who persecute us, try to outlaw divorce, and investigate the leaders of NOM and do press conferences about their activities. We need to start a revolution in the streets and government buildinFinally every gay person must come out to his/her family, neighbors, friends, co-workers, and anyone else they meet and explain that sexual orientation is inborn, and that their kids may be gay/lesbian, and they should be fighting for a world where their kids will have equal civil rights.g

  • Name: thepeoplesview
    Date posted: 8/3/2010 4:02:28 PM
    Hometown: Sunnyvale, CA

    Comment:

    It's very hard to follow this article without access to the actual study and data. Fischer is an activist and a lawyer, not a statistician - so I'd like to see the study for myself and look at the data. If you have it, please let me know.

  • Name: Dollylama Grandma
    Date posted: 8/3/2010 3:16:06 PM
    Hometown: Menefee

    Comment:

    I am a grandmother because I adopted a child. I am a life long lesbian...have had no doubts since I was 3. No matter how many beatings I got from my father, I still played with trucks and cars and guns. My dolls stayed on the shelf where I admired them and loved them but did not play with them. Now I have 2 grand daughters who spend the summers with me. My son went with me to the gay parades in LA and went to his school bragging that his momma was a lesbian. So it was not a secret and it was not a big deal. Of course, that was in the liberal 70's. Then the Repubidopes began to have more and more power. The moral majority rose to power. Life became more and more difficult to be gay and out. By the time my son reached high school age, I was deep in my closet and no one, outside of my family knew. Now I am 74 and my life partner has just passed away. We had been planning our wedding, when Prop 8 raised its ugly head. We can never live our dream now. And I am alone.



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