Summer of Love, Winter of Struggle

Who knew the path to marriage equality would be such a roller-coaster ride? The California supreme court’s epic decision on May 15 had gays and lesbians dancing in the streets. But that same day the LGBT leaders who won this fight were gearing up for a battle royal with social and religious conservatives. The stakes couldn’t be higher. Anti-equality forces will field a voter referendum this November to strip marriage rights away. And with public opinion split almost right down the middle, that referendum could pass.

One strategy for swaying voters to our side is as simple as can be. Speaking to The Advocate amid the May 15 celebration, San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom explained it this way: “With this decision comes a new reality, and it will be advanced, we hope, with tens of thousands of couples getting married between now and November.” Here’s his thinking: The more happy weddings they see, the less people will want to tear us apart.

If that’s the case, then gay couples who get married in California this summer are taking an action that’s as political as it is personal. Cary Davidson and his partner of 18 years, Andrew Ogilvie, understand that. Like many of the couples expected to declare their vows in this California marriage rush, Davidson and Ogilvie have already had a commitment ceremony. This time around, in lieu of gifts they’re asking friends and family to contribute to the campaign to fight the initiative.

In an already remarkable year for political campaigns, no one knows just how the battle will unfold. But virtually everyone agrees that keeping marriage on the books in California is going to involve one of the most scorched-earth political showdowns in the history of the LGBT movement. If gay rights groups can win in the country’s most populous state, both sides agree there will be a ripple effect nationwide. But if they lose at the ballot box after having won in the courts, the victory dissolves in a morass of legal questions. “Anyone who tells you what will happen,” says Lawrence C. Levine, a professor at the University of the Pacific McGeorge School of Law in Sacramento, “doesn’t know what they are talking about.”

A Long and Winding Road

The pending ballot initiative got under way in October 2007 when Protect Marriage -- a coalition of social and religious conservative organizations -- filed paperwork to begin collecting the signatures that would put a voter referendum on the November 2008 ballot to amend the state constitution. In contrast to the size of the task (about 700,000 signatures were required), the ballot’s intended edit to the constitution would consist of just 14 words: “Only marriage between a man and a woman is valid or recognized in California.”

At the time no one could have known when the court would hear oral arguments -- or rule on the constitutionality of denying same-sex marriage in California. But Protect Marriage did know that, if it passed, the initiative would codify the court’s ruling. If it failed, it would at least keep the gay marriage battle alive. That’s why the $1.8 million that Protect Marriage spent on its signature-gathering campaign through March 30, 2008, seems worth it. The initiative’s two largest donors -- the National Organization for Marriage, California; and Fieldstead and Co., the philanthropic organization of Howard Fieldstead Ahmanson Jr., sometimes called the “paymaster of the political right” -- account for $1 million of that total, according to state election records. Now that the initiative has qualified, Protect Marriage’s fund-raising effort will go into high gear, says legal counsel Andrew Pugno: “It takes at least $10 to $15 million to communicate with the voters in California.”

Equality for All -- the coalition of LGBT, civil rights, faith, choice, labor, and community of color organizations working to defeat the ballot measure -- knows that too. That’s why, says Kate Kendell, executive director of the National Center for Lesbian Rights and a coalition member, Equality for All intends to match the opposition “dollar for dollar.” To pull that off, it’ll need to raise between $10 million and $20 million -- more than has ever been raised to fight a gay ballot initiative. (As we went to press, the Human Rights Campaign announced it would donate $500,000 to this enormous effort.)