Even as we
celebrate our new right to marry in California, our
opponents are preparing to give us the fight of our
lives at the ballot box in November. Sue Rochman sizes
up the situation.
Who knew the path
to marriage equality would be such a roller-coaster
ride? The California supreme court’s epic decision on
May 15 had gays and lesbians dancing in the streets.
But that same day the LGBT leaders who won this fight
were gearing up for a battle royal with social and
religious conservatives. The stakes couldn’t be
higher. Anti-equality forces will field a voter
referendum this November to strip marriage rights
away. And with public opinion split almost right down the
middle, that referendum could pass.
One strategy for
swaying voters to our side is as simple as can be.
Speaking to The Advocate amid the May 15 celebration, San
Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom explained it this way:
“With this decision comes a new reality, and it
will be advanced, we hope, with tens of thousands of
couples getting married between now and November.”
Here’s his thinking: The more happy weddings
they see, the less people will want to tear us apart.
If that’s
the case, then gay couples who get married in California
this summer are taking an action that’s as
political as it is personal. Cary Davidson and his
partner of 18 years, Andrew Ogilvie, understand that.
Like many of the couples expected to declare their vows in
this California marriage rush, Davidson and Ogilvie
have already had a commitment ceremony. This time
around, in lieu of gifts they’re asking friends
and family to contribute to the campaign to fight the
initiative.
In an already
remarkable year for political campaigns, no one knows just
how the battle will unfold. But virtually everyone agrees
that keeping marriage on the books in California is
going to involve one of the most scorched-earth
political showdowns in the history of the LGBT movement.
If gay rights groups can win in the country’s most
populous state, both sides agree there will be a
ripple effect nationwide. But if they lose at the
ballot box after having won in the courts, the victory
dissolves in a morass of legal questions.
“Anyone who tells you what will happen,” says
Lawrence C. Levine, a professor at the University of the
Pacific McGeorge School of Law in Sacramento,
“doesn’t know what they are talking
about.”
A Long and Winding Road
The pending
ballot initiative got under way in October 2007 when Protect
Marriage -- a coalition of social and religious conservative
organizations -- filed paperwork to begin collecting the
signatures that would put a voter referendum on the
November 2008 ballot to amend the state constitution.
In contrast to the size of the task (about 700,000
signatures were required), the ballot’s intended edit
to the constitution would consist of just 14 words:
“Only marriage between a man and a woman is
valid or recognized in California.”
At the time no
one could have known when the court would hear oral
arguments -- or rule on the constitutionality of denying
same-sex marriage in California. But Protect Marriage
did know that, if it passed, the initiative would
codify the court’s ruling. If it failed, it would at
least keep the gay marriage battle alive. That’s why
the $1.8 million that Protect Marriage spent on its
signature-gathering campaign through March 30, 2008,
seems worth it. The initiative’s two largest donors
-- the National Organization for Marriage, California;
and Fieldstead and Co., the philanthropic organization
of Howard Fieldstead Ahmanson Jr., sometimes called
the “paymaster of the political right” --
account for $1 million of that total, according to
state election records. Now that the initiative has
qualified, Protect Marriage’s fund-raising effort
will go into high gear, says legal counsel Andrew
Pugno: “It takes at least $10 to $15 million to
communicate with the voters in California.”
Equality for All
-- the coalition of LGBT, civil rights, faith, choice,
labor, and community of color organizations working to
defeat the ballot measure -- knows that too.
That’s why, says Kate Kendell, executive
director of the National Center for Lesbian Rights and a
coalition member, Equality for All intends to match
the opposition “dollar for dollar.” To
pull that off, it’ll need to raise between $10
million and $20 million -- more than has ever been
raised to fight a gay ballot initiative. (As we went
to press, the Human Rights Campaign announced it would
donate $500,000 to this enormous effort.)
Click here to follow The Advocate on Twitter.
Page 1 of 3