Obama Has 58-Point Lead Over McCain Among GLBT Registered Voters

Registered LGBT voters favor Sen. Barack Obama over Sen. John McCain 68% to 10% in the presidential election, with 3% of GLBT adults supporting Ralph Nader and 1% choosing Bob Barr. Another 15% of LGBT voters said they were still undecided on a candidate.

Among all registered U.S. voters, Obama retains an eight-point lead over McCain in the latest Harris Poll, virtually unchanged since the nine-point lead he enjoyed in early July.

The latest Harris Poll, conducted August 1-7, surveyed 2,834 U.S. adults online, of whom 178 self-identified as gay, lesbian, bisexual, or transgender. Further demographic analysis yielded the following results according to Harris Interactive:

Age: Obama’s lead is critically dependent on his 33-point lead among “Echo Boomers,” people under 32 -- but they are usually are the least likely generation to actually vote. If they do not vote very heavily in November, it would hurt Obama’s chances. McCain leads among “Matures,” those over 62, by nine points, and they are the generation that is usually the most likely to vote;

Gender: There is currently no gender gap in this election. Obama’s lead is almost the same among men (+8 points) and women (+10 points);

Race: Obama currently wins virtually all the African-American vote (+91) and most of the crucial Hispanic vote (+25) but loses the white vote by eight points. In the past whites were more likely to vote than blacks or Hispanics;

Education: In many elections, those with only a high school education or less vote heavily Democratic; in this poll, McCain actually leads by four points. This is the group where Obama’s race is most likely to hurt him. Obama leads among those with some college (+16), college graduates (+14) and has his biggest lead among those with postgraduate education (+30). However, because more educated people are more likely to vote, these findings are not good news for McCain;

Income: There is only a modest correlation between income and voting intentions. Obama leads among all income groups, with a 17-point lead among those with less than $35,000 and six points among those earning $75,000 or more;

Party Identification: Unsurprisingly, most Democrats prefer Obama (+72) and most Republicans favor McCain (+71). The crucial independent vote currently tilts toward Obama by 11 points;

Political Philosophy: Conservatives favor McCain by 52 points and liberals favor Obama by 73 points. The very important moderate vote, a larger group than either conservatives or liberals, currently prefers Obama over McCain by 19 points. (The Advocate)