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GOP Pollster: New Prop. 8 Language Bodes Well for Measure’s Defeat

While Sarah Palin and Hurricane Gustav dominated talk on the abbreviated opening day of the 2008 Republican National Convention, a prominent Republican pollster confirmed that the recent change of language describing Proposition 8 was a positive one.
An Advocate.com exclusive posted September 2, 2008
GOP Pollster: New Prop. 8 Language Bodes Well for Measure’s Defeat

While Sarah Palin and Hurricane Gustav dominated talk on the abbreviated opening day of the 2008 Republican National Convention, a prominent Republican pollster confirmed that the recent change of language describing Proposition 8 was a positive one. At a forum on voter turnout in Minneapolis on Monday, Stephen M. Kinney, a longtime California researcher and a partner at Public Opinion Strategies, acknowledged that describing the ballot measure’s effect as eliminating the right to same-sex marriage would bode well for its defeat.

"You guys really lucked out -- I can guarantee you it’s going to make a major difference," Kinney told The Advocate at the Pew Center on the States event, where topics such as voting-machine vulnerabilities and the impact of first-time voters were addressed by various experts. After the California Supreme Court legalized same-sex marriage in May, state attorney general Jerry Brown changed the description of Prop. 8 that will appear on ballots in November to reflect the fact that the measure will “eliminate [the] right of same-sex couples to marry." Formerly the wording simply affirmed that “only marriage between a man and a woman is valid or recognized." (Attesting to the importance of the language, Prop. 8 supporters sued to keep the original description but were denied.)

Kinney, who's conducted polling for former California governor Pete Wilson and many other Republicans in the state -- and whose colleague, Bill McInturff, is the chief pollster for John McCain's presidential campaign -- added that Prop. 8 is energizing voters on both sides of the same-sex-marriage debate, particularly the older white males and Hispanic women who tend to favor the initiative and the libertarian types who tend to oppose it. He also said that young voters, defined as between the ages of 18 and 29 and who typically support gay rights, would definitely turn out on Election Day, contrary to long-standing patterns.

Nationwide, Democrats have seen an increase of 192% in young people registered to vote in 2008 than in 2004, substantially dwarfing those who’ve registered to vote as Republicans since the last presidential election. And while many observers wonder if they’ll actually cast a ballot come November 4, Kinney has no doubts that they will. "Every indication we have is that they’ll show up, because their man won," he said, referring to Democratic nominee Barack Obama. Surely that's another positive sign for opponents of Prop. 8.

Additional reporting by Kerry Eleveld.
Keywords:  2008 Election 
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Reader Comments

These comments are reproduced as written by visitors to this Web site. They have not been edited for content, grammar, or spelling. The viewpoints appearing here are those of the writer, and do not necessarily reflect the opinion or views of advocate.com, The Advocate, or its affiliates.

  • Name: John Lazzarino
    Date posted: 2008-10-14 2:34 PM
    Hometown: Fullerton

    Comment:

    While it may have some value to know who supports the initiatives that are on the ballot, the knowing should only be used to verify the validity of the claims and the basis for those claims. The popularity of the specific supporter should not be a factor, only constitutional correctness (the message,not the messenger) should determine how one should vote. In a society based on religious freedom, religious bias should not be allowed to dictate public law one way or another, neither should personal preferrence be the domain of government. Legal issues of marriage are the domain of government only to the extent allowed by constitutional issues (like tax law and governmental benifits). The spiritual consecretion of a bond between two individuals is the domain of religion and should be not a subject for federal or state law.


  • Name: John Gildersleeve
    Date posted: 2008-09-03 8:27 PM
    Hometown: San Francisco

    Comment:

    "You guys really lucked out..." No, it wasn't luck that got the ballot language changed, it was hard, diligent work. A terrific team of LGBT people and nongay friends is working for our civil rights. We can support them with money and our time. The right wing is set to launch the nastiest campaign in history. Non-Californians, please contribute to No on 8; your rights will be affected by either the win or the loss. The Calfornia Supreme Court's decision approving same-sex marriage will be used as a precedent by other courts, and a No on 8 vote will keep same-sex marriage legal in California. Put "no on 8" in your search engine to find how to give. Californians, please give money as well, but also your time. There are phone banks all over the state; you can help by calling voters. Talk also to your friends and co-workers, and get yourself and them to the polls on election day, November 4. Together, we can win this, but not if we sit back and watch.


  • Name: David L.
    Date posted: 2008-09-02 3:23 PM
    Hometown: Wichita Falls, TX

    Comment:

    The Californa Attorney General is right, it is taking away a right that everyone should have. In this day and age marriage is no longer a religious institution, it is a legally binding contract between two adults. If religious institutions don't want to perform marriages between people of the same sex then they shouldn't have to, but they also shouldn't try to force their beliefs onto other people and should not try to make their beliefs law. That is why we have seperation of church and state. They believe that a loving home can only be made between a man and woman, but we know different. So let them say whatever they want to, they have that right, but in the long run we will get the right that every American citizen should have. For naw we are second class citizens in the eyes of the law, but as with all great struggles for what is right we will prevail.


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