Religious and
cultural conservatives, a political force skeptical of the
leading Republican presidential candidates, are caught in a
tug of war between pragmatism and ideology.
''My head and my
heart are fighting with each other,'' said Phil Burress,
an Ohioan who has lobbied hard for federal and state bans on
same-sex marriage.
The vexing
choices facing these voters:
-Rudy
Giuliani, a thrice-married New Yorker who differs with them
on abortion, gays, and guns but who polls show offers
a strong chance to beat a Democrat next fall.
-Mitt
Romney, a Mormon from Massachusetts who didn't entirely
share their views in the past but who insists he now
does.
-Fred
Thompson, a Tennessean who hasn't been a vocal champion on
their core issues but who had a right-leaning Senate
voting record.
-John
McCain, an Arizona senator who has a clear socially
conservative resume but who dismissed their leaders
''agents of intolerance'' in 2000.
-Mike
Huckabee, a Southern Baptist minister and true believer who
has an extraordinary hill to climb for the nomination.
For now,
social-issue conservatives are scattered across the field of
candidates.
It's a
splintering that is, perhaps, more severe than in previous
presidential elections and that raises questions about the
power of a long-influential part of the GOP base. The
restiveness has prompted talk of a possible
third-party bid, a certain political death knell for the
GOP nominee.
Reflecting the
quandary these voters face, Focus on the Family's James
Dobson has rejected Giuliani and has panned both McCain and
Thompson. Romney is the only leading candidate Dobson
hasn't denounced -- but he hasn't publicly backed
Romney either.
''There's no one
Republican presidential candidate that inspires them,
and the movement leaders can find fault in one way or
another with all the candidates,'' said John Green, a
senior fellow at the Pew Forum on Religion and Public
Life. ''It's hard to tell if it means that their
influence is waning. But they're likely to have more
influence if they stay united. The longer they stay
behind several candidates, the less influence they'll
have.''
While the
ultimate impact of these religious and cultural
conservatives on the GOP nomination race is anyone's
guess, there's no question that they are a force in
numbers.
A recent Pew
Research Center survey found that 43% of Republicans say
social issues will be very important in deciding how to vote
in 2008, and another 31% call issues like abortion and
marriage somewhat important.
Associated
Press-Ipsos polls show that nearly two thirds of Republicans
consider themselves conservative, with Thompson and Giuliani
getting about equal support from that group while
McCain and Romney trail.
Roughly one in
five conservatives, churchgoers, and Christian
evangelicals are undecided.
Thompson has a
slight edge over Giuliani among the half of all
Republicans who attend weekly religious services as well as
among those who call themselves born-again Christians.
McCain and Romney lag in both categories.
The White House
hopefuls will make their pitches this weekend to a few
thousand ''values voters'' gathering in Washington for a
summit sponsored by the Family Research Council, a
conservative advocacy group.
Uncertainty about
a consensus candidate -- and anxiety over the
possibility of nominating Giuliani -- serves as a backdrop.
''Our heads are
telling us that we've got to settle for someone that can
win even if he's not the closest to our values. I've decided
that I can't do that. I've got to go with my heart,''
said Burress, who says he's leaning toward Huckabee
but has not committed.
Some fear that if
they stay divided as a group, their power will be
diluted and they will in effect be handing the nomination to
the antithesis of what they believe -- Giuliani.
''We have to
reconcile the tension between pure principle and pure
pragmatism,'' said John Stemberger, an Orlando lawyer and a
leading social conservative in Florida who says he has
not chosen a candidate. ''If we vote on pure
principle, we forfeit the opportunity to influence
policy through politics. If we vote on pure pragmatism, then
we sell our souls to the man.''
Some are trying
to see a silver lining in the lack of a favored
candidate.
''It's important
to have our people in as many different campaigns as
possible so our issues aren't lost,'' said Kelly
Shackelford, president of the Free Market Foundation
in Texas who isn't backing any one person yet.
As the summit
opens, attendees will watch for the fallout from several
recent developments:
-Influential social conservative leaders met
privately in Salt Lake City to weigh their options if
Giuliani wins the nomination. They overwhelmingly
approved a resolution pledging to support a minor-party
candidate if the Democratic and Republican nominees back
abortion rights, and discussed possibly creating a
third party. The group meets again Saturday in
Washington.
-Giuliani,
the former New York mayor who backs abortion and gay rights,
won the support of two antiabortion Republicans, including
Texas governor Rick Perry. Romney, who once backed
abortion rights but has reversed himself, earned the
endorsement of Bob Jones III, the chancellor of a
Christian fundamentalist school in South Carolina.
-Thompson
entered the race late and thus far has failed to emerge as
the conservative white knight his backers had
promised. He posted an advertisement on conservative
Web sites this week criticizing Romney and Giuliani on
values issues. ''Fred Thompson. The REAL Conservative,'' it
declares.
-Sen. Sam
Brownback of Kansas, a darling of the religious right,
decided to drop out of the race after his campaign
failed to catch on. That leaves his supporters
searching for a candidate, and at least two
competitors -- Huckabee and McCain -- hoping for Brownback's
endorsement. (Liz Sidoti, AP)