Senators Barack
Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton are both sustaining
dents and dings from their lengthy presidential fight. The
former first lady is clearly suffering more as
Democratic voters no longer see her as the party's
strongest contender for the White House.
Voters of all
types have gotten a better sense of Obama, who was an
obscure Illinois legislator just four years ago. As more
people moved from the ''I don't know him'' category in
an AP-Yahoo News poll, more rated Obama as
inexperienced, unethical, and dishonest. And 15%
erroneously think he's a Muslim, thanks in part to
disinformation widely spread on the Internet.
But Obama's
positive ratings have climbed as well, while Clinton --
widely known since the early 1990s -- has been less able to
change people's views of her. And when those views
have shifted, it has hurt her more than helped. The
New York senator's ratings for being honest, likable,
ethical, and refreshing have fallen since January, and Obama
scores higher than she does in all those categories.
In a dramatic
reversal, the AP-Yahoo News poll found that a clear
majority of Democratic voters now say Obama has the better
chance of defeating Republican Sen. John McCain in
November.
In late January,
before Obama scored 11 straight primary and caucus
victories, 56% of Democrats saw Clinton as the stronger
nominee, compared with 33% for Obama. Now, Obama leads
on that question 56% to 43%.
Still, the poll,
conducted by Knowledge Networks, contains some worrisome
signs for the first-term senator. Those rating him as ''not
at all honest,'' for example, jumped from 18% last
fall to 27% in April. It came as he was put on the
defensive over incendiary comments by his former
pastor. But many holding such views are Republicans or
conservative independents who would be unlikely to
vote in a Democratic primary or support a Democrat in
the fall anyway.
The most
encouraging sign for Obama is that many Democrats who
previously saw Clinton as their party's best hope now
give him that role. About one third of them still
prefer Clinton, but they have lost confidence in her
electability.
Many who have
switched to thinking Obama has the best chance of winning
come from groups that have leaned toward him all year,
including black, younger and better-educated voters.
''I would love to
vote for Hillary,'' said Nancy Costello of Bellevue,
Ky., one of the more than 1,800 randomly selected adults
whose opinions are rechecked every few months in the
AP-Yahoo News poll. ''I'm 67, and I'll probably never
get another chance to vote for a woman.''
But Obama now
appears to be the stronger candidate, she said, and
electing a Democrat in November is paramount. If McCain wins
and continues many of President Bush's economic and
foreign policies, Costello said, ''I think I would
just sit down and cry.''
By tracking the
same group throughout the campaign, the AP-Yahoo News
poll can gauge how individual views change. It suggests that
Clinton has paid a price for hammering Obama since
early February on several issues as she tries to
overcome his lead in delegates and the popular vote.
Among those Democrats who no longer consider her the more
electable of the two, most now see her as less
likable, decisive, strong, honest, experienced, and
ethical than they did in January.
Meanwhile, those
same voters are more likely to see Obama as strong,
honest and refreshing than before.
Beulah Barton of
Leesburg, Fla., said she initially backed Clinton,
partly because she liked Bill Clinton's record as president.
''But the more I
hear her talk, and the more I hear him talk, the more
put off I am,'' said Barton, 69. ''I think she's brash; I
think she's rude. I get the feeling that she feels she
deserves to be president'' and doesn't need ''to earn
it.''
Barton said she
likes Obama and ignores e-mails suggesting that he
refuses to salute the flag or is somehow threatening
''because of his name.''
''People try to
make him look like a traitor,'' she said. ''I think he
has risen above most of that stuff.''
Some
misinformation sticks, however. The great majority of the
poll's participants said this month they did not know
the religious affiliation of Clinton (a Methodist) or
Obama (United Church of Christ). But 15% ventured that
Obama, whose father was Kenyan, is a Muslim.
That group
includes more Democrats than Republicans, and it doesn't
necessarily worry them.
Randi Estes, a
Democrat from Ada, Okla., said she prefers Clinton but
feels Obama is likely to win the nomination. ''He's gotten
very strong media coverage, and Bill Clinton's not
helping her a bit,'' said Estes, 36, who has four
children under the age of 6.
Speaking of
Obama, she said, ''I have a sense he's a Muslim.''
If Obama wins the
nomination, the poll indicates he will need to mend his
image a bit as he battles McCain for independents and soft
Republicans. His favorability rating among all voters
has declined, with those ranking him as ''very
unfavorable'' growing from 17% in January to 25% in April.
Most of them are Republicans and independents.
In January, 30%
of Republicans rated Obama very unfavorably. That grew to
43% in April. Among the coveted independents, 12% had a very
unfavorable view of Obama in January. That has nearly
doubled to 23%.
Obama would be
the first black president, and the survey detected some
evidence of racial discomfort in voters' minds. It found
that about 8% of whites would be uncomfortable voting
for a black for president. It produced an estimate of
about 13% of Republicans who would feel that way, but
suggested very few if any Democrats would now be
uncomfortable. In November, about 5% of Democrats
indicated discomfort at voting for a black person for
president.
For Allen Lovell,
a moderate Democrat in Everett, Wash., race is
unimportant, but replacing Bush with a Democrat is vital.
And lately he has concluded that Obama probably has
the better chance of beating McCain.
''I am leaning
towards him, not because he's black -- because I'm white
-- but because we definitely need a change,'' said Lovell,
50.
He said the
Democratic campaign has lasted too long, but there is one
topic he'd like to hear more about. Lovell, who guessed that
Obama is ''either Christian or Muslim,'' said: ''I
don't think we're getting enough information on
religion'' from the candidates.
The survey of
1,844 adults was conducted April 2-14 and had an
overall margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.3
percentage points. Included were interviews with 863
Democrats, for whom the margin of sampling error was
plus or minus 3.3 points, and 668 Republicans, with a margin
of sampling error of plus or minus 3.8 points.
Knowledge
Networks conducted the poll over the Internet. It initially
contacted people using traditional telephone polling methods
and followed with online interviews. People chosen for
the study who had no Internet access were given it for
free. (AP)
