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August 20, 2008

Obama Has 58-Point Lead Over McCain Among GLBT Registered Voters

Registered LGBT voters favor Sen. Barack Obama over Sen. John McCain 68% to 10% in the presidential election, with 3% of GLBT adults supporting Ralph Nader and 1% choosing Bob Barr. Another 15% of LGBT voters said they were still undecided on a candidate.

Among all registered U.S. voters, Obama retains an eight-point lead over McCain in the latest Harris Poll, virtually unchanged since the nine-point lead he enjoyed in early July.

The latest Harris Poll, conducted August 1-7, surveyed 2,834 U.S. adults online, of whom 178 self-identified as gay, lesbian, bisexual, or transgender. Further demographic analysis yielded the following results according to Harris Interactive:

Age: Obama’s lead is critically dependent on his 33-point lead among “Echo Boomers,” people under 32 -- but they are usually are the least likely generation to actually vote. If they do not vote very heavily in November, it would hurt Obama’s chances. McCain leads among “Matures,” those over 62, by nine points, and they are the generation that is usually the most likely to vote;

Gender: There is currently no gender gap in this election. Obama’s lead is almost the same among men (+8 points) and women (+10 points);

Race: Obama currently wins virtually all the African-American vote (+91) and most of the crucial Hispanic vote (+25) but loses the white vote by eight points. In the past whites were more likely to vote than blacks or Hispanics;

Education: In many elections, those with only a high school education or less vote heavily Democratic; in this poll, McCain actually leads by four points. This is the group where Obama’s race is most likely to hurt him. Obama leads among those with some college (+16), college graduates (+14) and has his biggest lead among those with postgraduate education (+30). However, because more educated people are more likely to vote, these findings are not good news for McCain;

Income: There is only a modest correlation between income and voting intentions. Obama leads among all income groups, with a 17-point lead among those with less than $35,000 and six points among those earning $75,000 or more;

Party Identification: Unsurprisingly, most Democrats prefer Obama (+72) and most Republicans favor McCain (+71). The crucial independent vote currently tilts toward Obama by 11 points;

Political Philosophy: Conservatives favor McCain by 52 points and liberals favor Obama by 73 points. The very important moderate vote, a larger group than either conservatives or liberals, currently prefers Obama over McCain by 19 points. (The Advocate) 

Reader Comments

These comments are reproduced as written by visitors to this Web site. They have not been edited for content, grammar, or spelling. The viewpoints appearing here are those of the writer, and do not necessarily reflect the opinion or views of advocate.com, The Advocate, or its affiliates.

  • Name: Ryan
    Date posted: 2008-10-08 6:49 PM
    Hometown: Lancaster

    Comment:

    I am gay and leaning heavily toward McCain. After seeing how blacks behave toward Clinton and the things they say about whites I am leaning heavily toward McCain. Just today at the Gym some black dude felt so empowered to discuss with another black dude how he encouraged people whether white black or whatever to get out and vote. His voice started to rise and I knew he was going on a roll so I quickly went to the steam room. I heard him say about how palin is racist and how she should be slapped silly. I think a lot of blacks are going to feel they deserve an etitlement if Obama gets elected. It's weird I always felt for the plight of blacks but seeing this behavior personally and at work has totally turned me off to Obama. God bless america


  • Name: L. Myron
    Date posted: 2008-08-20 3:26 PM
    Hometown: On the Edge, New Jersey

    Comment:

    I'm ashamed to say that I have a few gay friends who plan to vote for McBush. Despite my attempts to try to convince them otherwise, they are steadfast in their resolve. The even sadder part of this is that in two of these cases, Obama's race is the factor. How can we who experience prejudice and intolerance every day behave in such a way toward others? My biggest concern is that more people who claim race is not a factor will cast their votes in the privacy of the polling booth for the white candidate, so that their racism remains a private issue. I fear this will happen in the larger community and unfortunately in our community as well.


  • Name: Nick
    Date posted: 2008-08-19 4:21 PM
    Hometown: Eugene

    Comment:

    "How any self respecting gay American can even consider voting for Mcain is a complete mystery to me." It is easy if you care about more than gay issues.


  • Name: Paul
    Date posted: 2008-08-19 3:59 PM
    Hometown: New York

    Comment:

    I, too, am amazed that a tenth of gay men and lesbians are supporting this Republican homophobe who has voted against our interests ad nauseum. It just goes to show that internalized homophobia is alive and well. Sad...


  • Name: Alfonso Matias, Jr.
    Date posted: 2008-08-19 3:00 PM
    Hometown: Tucson, AZ

    Comment:

    10% is too much. Mcain offers nothing but the same failed policies we've dealt with for the last eight years. To say that Obama isn't as committed or capable of protecting us is hogwash. The difference is that Obama is going to offer better ways to get the economy back in on track. He will appoint supreme court justices that will help protect our civil rights. Finally, he will get our standing in the international community back to where it was before Bush took office. How any self respecting gay American can even consider voting for Mcain is a complete mystery to me.


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