Aided by public
revulsion over an Internet-age sex scandal involving gay
former congressman Mark Foley, Democrats enter the final
month of the campaign well-positioned to challenge
control of Congress, while Republicans increasingly
express concern about holding on to power. ''We're
going to need everything we have to make sure we're
victorious,'' said Republican congressman Tom Cole of
Oklahoma, who had long experience as a party
strategist before his election to Congress. ''I think we
have the ability to do that, but it depends on how
well we perform."
Yet with four
weeks--and an unknown number of swings in political
momentum--remaining until the November 7 elections,
Democrats guarded against excessive optimism. ''It's
still an uphill battle,'' said U.S. senator Chuck
Schumer of New York, speaking at the end of a tumultuous
week in which Republicans struggled to overcome the
political damage caused by Foley and his sexually
explicit computer messages to teenage male pages.
Democratic
candidates are in competitive races for seven
Republican-held seats in the U.S. Senate and 30 or
more in the House, according to public as well as
private polls. Equally significant is that barring a change,
GOP opportunities for offsetting gains appear
minuscule--only three or four House seats
currently under Democratic control and one in the
Senate.
Members of the
leadership in both the House and Senate are among the
Republicans in jeopardy--Sen. Rick Santorum in
Pennsylvania and Rep. Deborah Pryce in Ohio--as
Democrats look for major gains in the Northeast and
Midwest.
Four Republican
congressmen are in trouble in Pennsylvania. And
strikingly, three more are struggling for survival in
Republican-red Indiana--at the same time Sen.
Richard Lugar is coasting to a sixth term without so
much as a Democratic opponent.
Thirty-six states
are electing governors this year. Republican Arnold
Schwarzenegger leads in the polls for reelection in
California, but Democrats are in commanding positions
to succeed retiring Republicans in New York and Ohio.
The fate of
hundreds of ballot initiatives will be decided. Several
states will vote on proposals to ban same-sex marriage and
raise the minimum wage. Republicans hope the former
will boost turnout in crucial congressional races, and
Democrats have similar plans for the latter.
In the race for
control of Congress, Democrats must gain 15 seats to
wrest control of the 435-member House and six to establish a
majority in the 100-member Senate.
Strategists in
both parties agree the fall campaign already has been
marked by two distinct trends. The first, which began after
Labor Day, saw gradual movement toward the Republicans
as President Bush campaigned vigorously on national
security issues.
That momentum
began to dissipate two weeks ago with the publication of
portions of a government intelligence report that cast doubt
on his administration's claims of progress in Iraq.
Then came Foley's resignation September 29 after he
was confronted with sexually explicit computer
messages he had sent to teenage male pages who work in the
Capitol.
In the following
days, House speaker Dennis Hastert and other GOP leaders
struggled to answer questions of when they learned of
Foley's actions and what they had done about them.
''It has stopped any momentum that the president had
in improving his standing, mostly because it knocked him
off the front pages and it knocked security off the front
pages,'' said Steve Lombardo, a Republican pollster.
It did more than
that. Some Republicans canceled planned campaign
appearances with Hastert, and Democrats challenged their GOP
opponents to call for his resignation. Republican
congressman Mike Simpson of Idaho said he was no
longer confident the GOP would retain power, a shift from
a week earlier, when he said he was ''fairly confident'' it
would. ''It's a real toss-up," he said.
An Associated
Press-Ipsos poll taken while the scandal was
dominating the news found that about half of likely
voters said the issues of corruption and congressional
scandal would be important when they cast their
ballots. About two out of three of those voters said they
would choose the Democratic candidate.
Officials in both
parties said the long term impact of the page scandal
was unclear. ''The real question is whether it's a
crystallizing event for voters,'' said Carter Eskew,
who has advised numerous Democratic lawmakers and
candidates. ''Whether they saw this as the last straw and
they start to coalesce'' around the belief that Republicans
are not willing to be accountable for actions that
occur on their watch.
Apart from
Santorum, Republican incumbents in trouble include senators
Conrad Burns in Montana, Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island,
Mike DeWine in Ohio, and Jim Talent in Missouri.
Sen. George Allen
of Virginia recently has joined the list, although
Republicans expressed hope that his position had finally
stabilized after weeks spent trying to rebut charges
of racism and religious insensitivity. Democratic
challenger Jim Webb recently reported a sharp jump in
fund-raising, and the party is also expected to come to his
aid with television commercials in the campaign's
final weeks.
Democrats also
remain optimistic about their prospects in Tennessee,
where Republican Bob Corker's staff recently underwent an
upheaval and Democratic congressman Harold Ford has
proved a resilient contender.
Republicans cite
their prospects in New Jersey, where Tom Kean Jr. is in
a close race with Democratic senator Bob Menendez. And
Democrats unexpectedly began advertising on television
in Maryland for Rep. Ben Cardin, although polls show
him leading Republican Michael Steele comfortably in a
reliably Democratic state.
In the House,
Democrats said they were still looking for late-developing
opportunities, and Republicans are hoping to avoid
last-minute ambushes. Bush campaigned in recent days
for California lawmakers in little evident jeopardy,
and the National Republican Congressional Committee
commissioned a poll to check the status of an open seat in
Idaho, in an area that is among the most Republican in
the country.
Foley's departure
created an instant opportunity for Democrats to gain a
seat previously out of reach in Florida. Democrats also said
they are increasingly optimistic about their prospects
for seats vacated by Rep. Jim Gibbons in Nevada and
Katherine Harris in Florida.
Pryce and Rep.
John Hostettler of Indiana are among the most vulnerable
of the Republicans in the House, both trailing their
Democratic rivals in private polls. Other GOP
incumbents in tight races include representatives Jim
Gerlach, Michael Fitzpatrick, Curt Weldon, and Don
Sherwood, all from Pennsylvania; Thelma Drake of Virginia;
Heather Wilson of New Mexico; and Chris Chocola and
Mike Sodrel of Indiana.
Sodrel had a
distinction of sorts--the first Republican to be hit
with a commercial that featured a picture of Foley. It
said Sodrel had accepted $77,000 in campaign donations
from ''the House leadership who knew about but did
nothing to stop sexual predator congressman Foley.'' (AP)
