Mike Huckabee,
who strums a bass guitar and cracks jokes at campaign
stops, is quietly establishing himself with Iowa voters as a
serious candidate for the Republican presidential
nomination.
''I think he's
the sleeper candidate this year,'' said Steve Roberts, a
Des Moines lawyer who sits on the Republican National
Committee. ''He makes a very positive impression in
his public appearances and in the debates.''
Huckabee's
success thus far in this early voting state has raised the
question: Can he overcome his rivals' advantages? He doesn't
have the money of Mitt Romney, the celebrity of Rudy
Giuliani, or the personal history of John McCain.
But the former
Arkansas governor has a message that resonates with many
Iowans. He is an ordained Baptist minister whose opposition
to abortion and gay rights appeals to social and
religious conservatives, and he has a personal story
of losing more than 100 pounds that has helped form his
stand on health care.
Huckabee often
delivers his conservative message while poking fun at
himself and others -- at times while performing with his
rock band, Capitol Offense.
It's a
combination that led him to a strong showing at the recent
Values Voter summit in Washington, where he tied with
Romney in a straw poll, and made him the choice of 12%
of likely Republican caucus participants -- ahead of
Giuliani, although behind Romney and Fred Thompson -- in the
latest survey by The Des Moines Register.
In August,
Huckabee finished second to Romney in a high-profile Iowa
GOP straw poll.
Still, Huckabee
has been unable to attract the necessary cash for his
campaign, and he is stuck in low single digits in national
polls. Huckabee raised $2.3 million as of Sept. 30 and
had $650,000 cash on hand. By comparison, Giuliani had
$16.6 million cash on hand, Romney $9.2 million and
Fred Thompson $7.1 million.
His lack of money
means Huckabee can field only eight paid staffers in
Iowa, about half the size of Romney's campaign, and cannot
air TV ads as Romney has done for months.
Given the
front-loaded election schedule, in which Iowa and New
Hampshire will be followed by an explosion of
primaries, many wonder if a candidate without a pile
of money can afford to build the organizations needed to
compete throughout the nation.
''I think it's a
pretty big problem when you look at $600,000 in the bank
and the compressed schedule,'' said Bob Haus, who works for
Thompson. ''This is not just an Iowa analysis any
more. You have to be up and running in 10 or 12
states.''
Huckabee rejects
the notion that big money is essential.
''People have
said you have to have this much money to be competitive,
and they've been wrong,'' he said. ''A lot of these
campaigns have spent an enormous amount of money. We
have been frugal and make no apologies for that.''
Given the
organization Romney has built in Iowa, some think a
second-place finish could be enough to give Huckabee the
boost he needs. The Iowa caucuses have a history of
lifting the campaigns not only of caucus victors, but
second-place finishers as well.
In 1972, for
example, George McGovern finished behind Edmund Muskie in
the caucuses, but the strong showing propelled McGovern
toward the Democratic nomination. In 1980, Ronald
Reagan finished second to George H.W. Bush but claimed
the GOP nomination. Bush eventually became Reagan's
running mate.
''I really do
think the battle in Iowa is for second place,'' said the
state's Republican chairman, Richard Schwarm, a lawyer and
Romney backer. ''I think he's got a good shot at
second place.''
Steve Scheffler,
who heads the Iowa Christian Alliance, said Huckabee has
put himself in position to finish surprisingly well in
Iowa's caucuses. The key will be whether Huckabee can
build a campaign organization to take advantage of his
appeal to socially conservative Iowans.
''I think it's
fair to say that the two people who have gained the most
traction with this constituency are Romney and Huckabee,''
Scheffler said. ''If they understand the conservative
Christian community, then they can pull a surprise
here.''
Huckabee and
others note that his rise in the polls comes amid signs that
Republicans have not settled on a candidate. All the
top-tier contenders have weaknesses.
Romney has been
criticized for dropping his support for abortion rights
and gay rights as he tries to appeal to the GOP's
conservative base. Giuliani has had to defend his
support for abortion rights, gay rights, and gun
control.
McCain stirs
distrust among party regulars because he has advocated an
immigration overhaul that includes a pathway to citizenship
for illegal aliens and because he cowrote a campaign
finance law despised by conservatives.
Thompson has had
trouble meeting the sky-high expectations that his entry
would reshape the Republican presidential race.
Huckabee also has
vulnerabilities that opponents are likely to raise as
his prominence in the race grows. He has been criticized by
antitax groups for signing tax increases as governor,
although he also signed into law nearly $100 million
in income tax breaks.
Two months after
taking over as governor, Huckabee announced he would
commute the sentence of castrated rapist Wayne DuMond,
creating a furor. Four months later, Huckabee denied
clemency on the same day that the state parole board
announced it would release DuMond if another state
accepted him. DuMond was released to Missouri in October
1999, and in June 2001 he was charged in the murder of
a Kansas City-area woman.
The longer Iowa
activists consider their options, the longer Huckabee has
a chance to nudge his way into contention.
''There have been
some major surprises in the past,'' said Ray Hoffmann,
Iowa GOP chairman. ''If he does second or third here and
then second or third in New Hampshire, people are
going to have to take another look.'' (Mike Glover,
AP)