Analysts and even
supporters of Hillary Rodham Clinton have said she
needs to win two big states Tuesday to keep her presidential
campaign afloat. But her advisers are seeking to put
the burden on front-runner Barack Obama, saying if he
doesn't sweep all four states Tuesday, it would show
Democrats are having second thoughts about him.
Obama's string of
11 victories since the February 5 ''Super Tuesday''
contests has raised questions about the viability of
Clinton's candidacy. As recently as February 20, even
former president Bill Clinton pinned his wife's hopes
on Ohio, in the Midwest, and Texas, in the South.
''If she wins in
Texas and Ohio, I think she'll be the nominee,'' the
former president told a Beaumont, Texas, audience. ''If you
don't deliver for her, I don't think she can be.''
But in an e-mail
and conference call to reporters Friday, Clinton's
campaign laid the groundwork to keep her campaign alive if
the results are disappointing Tuesday in the four
states, which also include Rhode Island and Vermont.
Obama has been
leading the former first lady in the popular vote,
committed delegates, and fund-raising. In Friday's
conference call, senior Clinton strategist Howard
Wolfson seized on those facts to reshape expectations
about the Democratic contest.
''They are
outspending us at least two to one in Ohio and Texas,''
Wolfson said. ''If they are unable to win these states, it
sends a very clear signal that Democrats want this
campaign to continue. Obama has every advantage going
into this election. If Senator Obama is in fact the de
facto nominee, he ought to win all four.''
A loss for Obama
in even one of the four states Tuesday would indicate
Democrats have developed a case of ''buyer's remorse,''
Wolfson said. ''It would show that Senator Obama is
having trouble closing the deal with Democrats.''
However, Bill
Clinton's assertion that his wife must win both Texas and
Ohio to keep her campaign alive reflects a widely held view
among political analysts.
Polls now give
her a modest lead in Ohio and show Texas is a toss-up;
earlier she had large leads in both states.
Obama has
announced he'll spend Tuesday night in Texas, one of the
biggest prizes of the campaign. A win in Texas would allow
Obama to counter the Clinton campaign's argument that
although he's won more states, she's carried the big
states like California, New York, and New Jersey.
On Friday the
candidates were tussling over a stark new Clinton ad, in
which she is portrayed as the leader voters want on the
phone when a crisis occurs in the middle of the night,
drawing criticism from Obama that she is trying to
scare the American public.
Clinton's
commercial features images of sleeping children and suggests
that voters would be safer with her in charge when a crisis
happens ''when your children are safe and asleep.''
The ad was designed to appeal to women voters -- a
core bloc Clinton needs in order to salvage her
faltering campaign in the races in Texas and Ohio.
In a lightning
response, Obama parodied her ad with one of his own -- the
same ominously ringing phone, the sleeping children, the
mood lighting, even the same introduction.
The Obama ad
intones, ''In a dangerous world, it's judgment that
matters.''
Obama argued that
when Clinton had her ''red phone moment,'' as he put it
in a speech earlier in the day, she voted in the Senate for
the war in Iraq, while he stood against the war from
the start.
Clinton's
foreboding ad prompted an immediate denunciation from Obama,
who said it is meant to scare people. Clinton later told a
rally, ''I don't think Texans scare very easily.''
Clinton referred
to Obama's new commercial during a rally in San Antonio
on Friday night, noting that he's neglecting real duties.
''He was given an
important responsibility in the Senate to chair a
committee with responsibility for NATO,'' said Clinton. ''He
didn't hold one substantive meeting.''
Clinton, a
second-term senator, is aiming to become the first woman
president, casting herself as the candidate with the years
of service needed to take command on her first day in
the White House. Obama, a first-term senator who hopes
to be the first black U.S. president, is seeking to
chip away at those arguments by suggesting he would have
superior judgment.
A Fox News poll
released Friday showed Obama moving into a narrow lead of
48% to Clinton's 45% in Texas, but that fell within the
margin of sampling error of plus or minus four
percentage points. The poll, conducted February 26-28,
showed Obama with a large edge among white men,
blacks, and younger voters, while Clinton leads among women,
Hispanics, and the oldest voters.
But the Fox
survey found Clinton holding on to her narrowing lead in
Ohio with 46% to Obama's 38%. Clinton was leading
among women, whites, less educated and lower-earning
voters, and people over 45, while cutting into Obama's
usual large margin among men and the college-educated.
Tuesday's four
contests offer a total of 370 delegates.
Obama has 1,383
delegates to Clinton's 1,276. A total of 2,025 are needed
to secure the Democratic nomination at the party's
convention in late August.
Presumptive
Republican nominee John McCain and even President George W.
Bush have seized on Obama's lack of experience, trying to
portray him as a smooth talker who is naive about
international affairs. On Friday, McCain took on both
Democrats, saying Obama and Clinton's expressed desire
to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement would
jeopardize crucial military support from Canada.
But McCain faced
criticism after he accepted the endorsement of a
prominent Texas televangelist, John Hagee, who Democrats say
peddles anti-Catholic and other intolerant speech.
McCain refused to
renounce the endorsement, but instead issued a
statement Friday saying he had unspecified disagreements
with the San Antonio megachurch leader.
''However, in no
way did I intend for his endorsement to suggest that I
in turn agree with all of Pastor Hagee's views, which I
obviously do not,'' McCain said in the statement.
His campaign
issued the statement after two days of criticism from the
Democratic National Committee, the Catholic League, and
Catholics United.
Democrats quoted
Hagee as saying the Catholic Church conspired with Nazis
against the Jews and that Hurricane Katrina was God's
retribution for homosexual sin.
McCain has had
trouble rallying support among the key Republican
constituency of conservative Christians, especially in
Southern states. Former Arkansas governor Mike
Huckabee, a Baptist preacher-turned-politician, has
been the favorite among these evangelical voters and
continued to seek their support with campaign events planned
Saturday in Texas.
The Republican
race is considered settled in favor of McCain, a former
Navy pilot and Vietnam prisoner of war. He has a total of
1,014 of the 1,191 delegates needed to clinch the
nomination at the Republican convention in September.
Huckabee trails with 257 delegates. (AP)
