This Election Has Nate Silver Cussing at Media on Twitter

\u201cThis article is so fucking idiotic and irresponsible. https://t.co/VNp02CvxlI\u201d

— Nate Silver (@Nate Silver) 1478376456

\u201cThe reason we adjust polls for the national trend is because **that's what works best emperically**. It's not a subjective assumption.\u201d

— Nate Silver (@Nate Silver) 1478376456

\u201cIt's wrong to show Clinton with a 6-point lead (as per HuffPo) when **almost no national poll shows that**. Doesn't reflect the data.\u201d

— Nate Silver (@Nate Silver) 1478376456

\u201cEvery model makes assumptions but we actually test ours based on the evidence. Some of the other models are barley even empirical.\u201d

— Nate Silver (@Nate Silver) 1478376456

\u201cThere are also a gajillion ways to make a model overconfident, whereas it's pretty hard to make one overconfident.\u201d

— Nate Silver (@Nate Silver) 1478376456

\u201cIf you haven't carefully tested how errors are correlated between states, for example, your model will be way overconfident.\u201d

— Nate Silver (@Nate Silver) 1478376456

\u201cNot just an issue in elections models. Failure to understand how risks are correlated is part of what led to the 2007/8 financial crisis.\u201d

— Nate Silver (@Nate Silver) 1478376456

\u201cThere's a reasonable range of disagreement. But a model showing Clinton at 98% or 99% is not defensible based on the empirical evidence.\u201d

— Nate Silver (@Nate Silver) 1478376456

\u201cWe constantly write about our assumptions and **provide evidence** for why we think they're the right ones. https://t.co/IhLKXdxGGK\u201d

— Nate Silver (@Nate Silver) 1478376456

\u201cThat's what makes a model a useful scientific & journalistic tool. It's a way to understand how elections work. Not just about the results.\u201d

— Nate Silver (@Nate Silver) 1478376456

\u201cThe problem is that we're doing this in a world where people\u2014like @ryangrim\u2014don't actually give a shit about evidence and proof.\u201d

— Nate Silver (@Nate Silver) 1478376456

\u201cThe philosophy behind 538 is: Prove it. Doesn't mean we can't be wrong (we're wrong all the time). But prove it. Don't be lazy.\u201d

— Nate Silver (@Nate Silver) 1478376550

\u201cAnd especially don't be lazy when your untested assumptions happen to validate your partisan beliefs.\u201d

— Nate Silver (@Nate Silver) 1478376823

\u201cWhen you go low, I go high 80% of the time, and knee you in the balls the other 20% of the time.\u201d

— Nate Silver (@Nate Silver) 1478387703