Here Are Our 2024 Election Predictions. Will They Come True?
What Will Happen in 2024?
Elections are always anxiety-inducing, especially for LGBTQ+ voters, but the last two presidential contests were pure horror. There’s little hope the 2024 election will be less stressful — especially with Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis in the fray — but steel yourself for what may come with the following political prophesies:
John Casey, Senior Editor:
If Republicans move forward with impeaching Biden, while Trump dominates the news with coverage of all his indictments, there will be no room for discussion of any real issues. It will be a disaster for the GOP, mostly because the Biden impeachment is as thin as paper. For the Democrats, the canary in the coal mine is the worsening migrant situation. The Biden administration needs to address this sooner rather than later; otherwise Republicans will label Democrats the party of lawlessness, as they successfully did in New York State in 2020.
Christopher Wiggins, Senior National Reporter:
As the election draws nearer, expect Republicans to persist in leveraging culture war topics to incite outrage, believing that it mobilizes voters. Despite the fact that a majority of Americans do not prioritize legislation related to transgender issues and have reservations about politicians’ ability to formulate fair policies concerning gender-affirming care and abortion, the GOP seems committed to pursuing hostile, right-wing attacks on the LGBTQ+ community through both rhetoric and legislative action. This approach may alienate libertarian voters, traditional small-government conservatives, and independents who had previously considered supporting the Republican party.
Kayla Gagnet, Executive Director of Digital Content:
Abortion rights will be a major motivating factor for many voters. And Republicans will try to hide from voters’ anger about losing those rights after the overturning of Roe v. Wade. They’ll continue their anti-democratic efforts at the state level to block local ballot measures on the issue. That’s because more than six in 10 Americans think abortion should be legal in all or most cases, according to a recent survey by The 19th/SurveyMonkey. And more than seven in 10 think politicians aren’t informed enough about it to create fair policies. So a direct vote on the issue doesn’t go well for Republicans, and Democratic candidates would be wise to keep abortion access at the center of their platforms.
Trudy Ring, Senior Politics Editor:
Democrats must push back against the Republicans’ big lie — one of many! — that the Dems have forgotten working-class people and that the GOP is actually the party of “ordinary Americans.” The truth is, Republicans continue to support policies that benefit the rich and privileged. Democrats should emphasize the fact that, contrary to some perceptions, the economy is humming along very well under President Biden. Real wages have increased (especially for those who aren’t in supervisory jobs, therefore not the “elite”), inflation is down, and job growth continues strong.
Neal Broverman, Editorial Director:
The GOP will soon unveil new messaging for 2024: “Kamala, Kamala, Kamala.” Republicans will continue their efforts to demonize the vice president because, as a woman of color, she’s an easy target for the racism and misogyny that courses through the GOP. Going after Harris is part of their master plan to take back the White House — push the narrative that Biden is somehow a walking corpse, so a vote for him is intrinsically a vote for the dark-skinned lady with the different-sounding first name. The GOP has no real policies so they will fall back on their winning blueprint in 2016; paint a powerful Democratic woman as evil incarnate.
Alex Cooper, Digital Director:
Misinformation/disinformation about LGBTQ+ lives and experiences will continue. We see that with Senate hearings where Republicans bring in false experts on gender-affirming care. We see that on the campaign trail with comments from former President Donald Trump and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. GOP politicians are going to target books, schools, drag queens, and safe spaces. This will be done regardless of the fact that the average American doesn’t care about these topics. However, this is harmful to LGBTQ+ people because there is evidence that some of this dangerous rhetoric is slowly affecting some of these topics — like trans health care and marriage equality. LGBTQ+ people are going to be targeted in this election cycle in ways we haven’t seen in years. Journalists, advocacy groups, and the community need to be prepared for that.