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Nate Silver Has Been Predicting This Since March

Nate Silver Has Been Predicting This Since March


The media seems to be converging on this idea that Democrats are about to lose the Senate, but as usual, it was Nate Silver who was ahead of the curve.

Nate Silver has been depressing Democrats for a long time now, since first predicting that Republicans were positioned to reclaim the Senate months ago.

The out election analyst was on ABC's This Weekway back in March and first unveiled his Senate projection, saying that Republicans then had a 60 percent chance of retaking the Senate.

Reporter Jonathan Karl built up the moment. "This is the drum roll," he said. "Republicans need six seats. What's the projection? How many are they going to pick up?"

"Exactly six," Silver said, "but probably plus or minus five."

"That means they could pick up 11 seats?"

"They could," Silver said.

This is the sort of thing that got Silver added to The Advocate's 40 Under 40 list for 2014, with a profile headlined, "It's Probably A Good Idea to Listen to Nate Silver."

Silver's FiveThirtyEight website has never wavered from its projection that Republicans had a good chance of taking the Senate from Democrats. And he's been doing the rounds on cable news, explaining why things have turned out this way.

Watch that ABC video below of Silver's original projection from March and then compare it to what he told MSNBC's Chris Hayes during an interview on Election Eve.

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