Republicans have made Americans believe transgender athletes are everywhere. They’re barely anywhere

One consequence of Republicans constantly running on trans sports bans is that Americans presume that orders of magnitude more transgender athletes compete than actually do.

A poll conducted by The Bulwark and independent Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Pablo Torre shows that misperception. About 15 percent of Americans believe between 1 percent and 5 percent of athletes in the NCAA are transgender, meaning as many as 1 in 20 athletes. Another 14 percent of Americans think trans athletes make up between 6 percent and 25 percent of NCAA athletes, or as many as 1 in 4.

Combined, those respondents account for 29 percent of those surveyed, nearly matching the 31 percent who, correctly, believe fewer than 1 percent of student-athletes are trans.

That’s despite the fact that the NCAA in February 2025 imposed new restrictions barring trans girls and women from competing in women’s sports events, the only transgender participation most state bans address at all. The new rules were consistent with an executive order issued by President Donald Trump near the start of his second term.

Related: Poll shows public support sinking for transgender athletes to play based on gender identity

Even before then, NCAA President Charlie Baker testified to the U.S. Senate in 2024 that only 10 trans athletes, out of 510,000 nationwide, were competing in NCAA events. After commissioning the poll, the NCAA told Torre that no trans athletes are currently competing in any NCAA competitions nationwide, as the organization is in full compliance with Trump’s edict.

Regardless of the numbers, true or imagined, the poll found that a majority of Americans support trans sports bans. Some 51 percent of Americans, according to the poll, oppose allowing transgender athletes to compete in events based on their gender identity.

Yet, the poll also shows voters may be tiring of the antics of anti-trans activists. Some 60 percent oppose former NBA player Enes Kanter Freedom attempting to enter the WNBA draft. Trump voters approved of the stunt, but by only about 6 percentage points, while a majority of Harris voters and pluralities of self-described independents and moderates opposed it.