Nevada looks like it’s going to be solidly in Joe Biden’s column Tuesday — not a surprise, as the state usually goes Democratic, but it would make it difficult for Donald Trump to put together an Electoral College win and would help down-ballot Democrats.
“The Democrats have banked so many votes in early voting that it is almost impossible for the Republicans to overcome it on Election Day,” political pundit Jon Ralston wrote Monday in The Nevada Independent.
Biden has a lead of 90,000 in Clark County, the state’s most populous, which includes Las Vegas and is a Democratic stronghold. This number, based on mail-in votes already counted, “is a formidable, unprecedented firewall,” Ralston noted. The second most populous county, Washoe, which includes Reno, is likely to go for Biden or come close, he wrote, and there are not enough votes in rural areas to overcome Biden’s popularity in the more urban centers.
Nevada has only six electoral votes, but they’re significant. Jason Miller, a senior adviser to the Trump campaign, said Sunday that one of the president’s paths to reelection includes the state.
"Even if for some reason we didn’t have Arizona, we could pick off Nevada, a place that our modeling shows that we’re going to win on Tuesday, as well as Michigan, and that would put President Trump over the top,” Miller said on ABC’s This Week. “We have multiple pathways.” Polls indicate Democrats have a good chance of taking Arizona for the first time since President Bill Clinton’s victory in 1996; the state has 11 electoral votes.
But the Trump campaign shouldn’t count on Nevada, according to Ralston. “The Republicans would have to absolutely swamp the Democrats on Tuesday — with Trump winning Election Day by double-digits — and that just does not happen here,” he wrote. Biden’s strength in Nevada will help down-ballot Democrats, Ralston added, predicting victories for Dems Susie Lee and Steve Horsford in congressional races.
A Nevada judge Monday rejected a lawsuit filed by the Trump campaign and Nevada Republicans to stop the counting of mail-in votes. They “alleged that they could not observe all aspects of the ballot-counting process closely enough, and wanted to install cameras to record the process,” NPR reports. Carson City District Court Judge James Wilson, however, ruled that the plaintiffs did not have legal standing to sue and that there was no evidence that votes were being counted improperly.
Trump and his supporters, Ralston wrote, “hope that not enough ballots will be counted to give Joe Biden a clear victory here on Election Night — and then they can begin trying to get ballots tossed. Everyone should know this is the game, a most dangerous one that undermines the very underpinnings of our electoral system.”