Survey finds support for Biden's withdrawal but uncertainty on Harris's chances of winning

The vast majority of Americans support President Joe Biden’s decision not to run for a second term, but feelings about his endorsement of Kamala Harris for president vary along party lines, according to a new survey from The 19th (one of The Advocate’s reporting partners) and SurveyMonkey.

Democrats polled predict that the move will benefit their party, while respondents overall are divided on the impact of Harris’s gender and ethnicity on the election.

Biden announced Sunday that he was dropping out of the race and was endorsing Vice President Harris to replace him at the top of the Democratic ticket. The poll was conducted online Monday through Wednesday among a national sample of 5,265 U.S. residents aged 18 and older.

Eighty-seven percent of respondents strongly or somewhat agreed with Biden’s decision to end his campaign, with similar levels of support from both Republicans (88 percent) and Democrats (92 percent). Independents were slightly less supportive at 76 percent.

Republicans and Democrats diverged on Biden’s endorsement of Harris. Seventy-nine percent of Republicans somewhat or strongly disagreed with the endorsement, while 90 percent of Democrats strongly or somewhat agreed.

Forty-five percent of all respondents said Biden’s decision to drop out will benefit the Democrats, while 29 percent said it will benefit the Republican Party. Twenty-four percent foresaw no impact on this year’s election.

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Democrats were more optimistic about Biden’s decision: 77 percent of those who identify as a Democrat or leaning Democratic thought it will benefit their party, while 12 percent thought it would help the Republicans. Forty-nine percent of Republicans said it would help their party, while 22 percent said it would benefit Democrats.

Seventy-eight percent of Democrats expressed confidence that Harris would beat Donald Trump in the presidential election, but 20 percent thought Trump would prevail over her. Among Republicans, 92 percent said Trump would defeat Harris, with only 7 percent thinking she would win.

Thirty-one percent of all respondents said being a woman would help Harris’s chances of becoming president, slightly lower than those who think her gender would have no impact (34 percent) or a negative impact (33 percent). Men and women expressed similar views on the matter.

More people said that being Black and Indian American would help rather than hurt her chances (32 percent helps a lot/a little versus 24 percent harms a lot/a little). White respondents were the most likely to believe her ethnicity will boost her chances, compared to Black, Hispanic, or Asian Americans polled, while Black respondents were most likely to say her ethnicity would hurt her in the election.

Forty-five percent of those polled said having a white man as her running mate would have no particular impact on the likelihood of her election, and 40 percent said such a choice would improve her chances. Only 11 percent said it would worsen her chances.

The sentiment was nearly the opposite when it comes to choosing a woman as her running mate: Only 16 percent thought that having a female running mate would improve Harris’s chances of winning, compared to 42 percent who said it would worsen her chances and 39 percent who thought it would have no impact.