No, supporting trans rights doesn’t cost elections

It's easy amidst the 'woke' wars to claim that supporting protections for transgender people is not just unnecessary but toxic. Democrats who stay quiet can pacify moderates and even draw conservatives without losing base voters — so goes the story.

But this facile take isn't true. Just ask Americans.

In 2021, Lake Research Partners and Project LPAC, the research arm of the only organization dedicated to electing LGBTQ women and non-binary candidates, found that 43 percent of voters were more likely to vote for a candidate who stands up for transgender people. Just 21 percent of voters would be less likely to support a candidate who supports trans rights. Yet more tellingly, 73 percent of voters favor policies ensuring transgender people are protected against discrimination in employment, housing, credit, education, public spaces, and health care.

Despite these figures, Republicans doubled down — but to little avail. In October 2024, as then-candidate Donald Trump's spending on anti-trans ads passed the $20 million mark, Gallup found that of 22 issues that might sway voters, trans rights were the least influential. A strong majority (61 percent) said the issue was only somewhat important (25 percent) or wasn't important (36 percent).

Contrary to the narrative Republicans have spent millions promoting, attacking candidates for supporting transgender rights backfires with a majority of the electorate. A January 2024 Gay & Lesbian Alliance Against Defamation (GLAAD) poll found that 53 percent of both registered and likely voters would oppose candidates who "speak frequently about restricting access to health care and participation in sports for transgender youth."

The GOP miscalculated in their frenzy to find a new values-based issue on which to run. In fact, the GOP got it backward: Messaging emphasizing that parents and families, not governments, should make decisions about children's health and well-being resonates widely. GLAAD found 81 percent of likely voters, 83 percent of swing voters, and 73 percent of Trump supporters agree that decisions surrounding health care and mental health services for transgender youth should be made by parents.

The long-term political costs to Republicans will be steep: After sinking millions into linking themselves to transphobic rhetoric and policies, the GOP now owns the costs of denying basic protections to trans Americans and their families. As Lake Research Partners' Celinda Lake warns, "these are issues that hurt real people, especially young people figuring out who they are."

Transgender people have long been more likely to have poor physical and mental health, experience poverty and unemployment, and face workplace discrimination.

Things have gotten much worse for trans Americans since Trump's crusade began, especially youth: In the 19 states that passed anti-trans laws aimed at minors from 2018 to 2022, suicide attempts by trans and gender-non-conforming teenagers increased by as much as 72 percent. Now, even in states that have not passed anti-trans laws, hospitals and clinics are ending gender-affirming care in response to rhetoric and executive orders from the Trump administration, despite legal challenges.

Meanwhile, the proportion of Americans who know someone who is transgender, a critical predictor of their support for trans rights, is growing. In 2008, just 8 percent of American adults knew an out transgender person; by 2015, that number had risen to 16 percent. Now, at least a third, between 36 percent and 42 percent of Americans, know someone who is trans. Seven in ten (68 percent) of all likely voters and nearly eight in ten (75 percent) Independents who know a transgender person are more likely to be sympathetic to trans issues.

Democrats aren't losing because of outspoken support for trans rights: They're losing because they're not talking about transgender people's lives and rights. Far more Americans support trans rights or oppose persecuting trans people than support anti-trans policies. Virtually no voters rank trans rights as a top issue.

Bottom line: Most voters would rather see candidates and elected officials focus on the economy, healthcare, and other issues. Seventy-six percent of registered and likely voters and 82 percent of "swing" voters agree that Republicans should stop focusing on restricting bodily autonomy and medical access for youth and focus on addressing economic issues.

Democrats must think in terms of opportunity rather than liability. Instead of letting conservatives define the dialogue around LGBTQ+ policies, Democrats must step up. Elected in 2024, America's first out trans member of Congress, Representative Sarah McBride, urges "reclaim[ing] the narrative and the humanity in the public's mind of trans people." McBride's advice echoes research like Lake and LPAC's offers a guide for candidates on how to speak about transgender people's rights in terms of deeply held American values.

Candidates must step up to protect our trans friends, relatives, and communities, not sit back. It's not just the right thing to do — it's the way to win.

Rebecca Buckwalter-Poza is a Board Member at LPAC, the nation's only organization dedicated to electing LGBTQ+ women and nonbinary leaders.

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