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Can You Trust the Polling on Proposition 8?

Last week's Field Poll in California found that voters were likely to reject the state ballot amendment in November that intends to prohibit gay marriage. But are voters really telling pollsters the truth about how they'll vote once they're in the booth? A polling expert examines the numbers and the opposition's claim that the Field Poll just isn't accurate.
An Advocate.com exclusive posted September 23, 2008
Can You Trust the Polling on Proposition 8?

Do voters lie to pollsters when asked their opinion on banning same-sex marriage? That seems to be the question in California, where a survey last week found voters rejecting a proposed statewide ban on gay marriage by a decisive 17-point margin. Conservatives have countered with a study claiming that voters -- driven by “political correctness” -- substantially underreport their support for banning gay marriage to pollsters.

But a careful analysis of polling data on marriage amendments and election results from previous races indicates that if any such reluctance exists with regard to same-sex marriage initiatives, it is small -- about two points on average since 1998. In 2006 it was effectively zero. In other words, if the election were held today, polling trends suggest that California voters would reject the marriage ban -- known as Proposition 8 -- by a healthy margin.

The Field Poll in question was conducted September 5-14 and found likely voters opposed to the ban by 55% to 38%, with 7% undecided. The poll is the second in as many months indicating that a majority of the state’s voters intends to vote no on Prop. 8. (If passed, the measure would reverse a May ruling by the California supreme court that gave same-sex couples the right to marry.)

The response by Prop. 8’s sponsors? Not so fast, they say. The group ProtectMarriage.com released a study last week that compared preelection polling with actual Election Day results in 26 states that have voted on same-sex marriage initiatives since 1998. They contend that many survey respondents who supported the bans misreported their preferences to pollsters as undecided or even opposed, and conclude that support for these measures has been underestimated by an average of seven percentage points.

But my analysis of the ProtectMarriage.com data suggests that the study’s methodology overstates the gap between polls and election results with calculations that implicitly allocate undecided survey respondents to the “oppose” category. Reanalyzing the data shows that the number of voters who are reluctant to share their true feelings about same-sex marriage is small -- and is certainly not on the rise. Since 1998, the gap between polled support for marriage bans among decided voters and Election Day results has averaged only 2.2 percentage points. In 2006, the gap declined to less than a point in the seven states holding initiatives for which data are available.

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Egan is an assistant professor of politics at New York University.
Keywords:  California marriage 
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Reader Comments

These comments are reproduced as written by visitors to this Web site. They have not been edited for content, grammar, or spelling. The viewpoints appearing here are those of the writer, and do not necessarily reflect the opinion or views of advocate.com, The Advocate, or its affiliates.

  • Name: Gray
    Date posted: 2008-11-06 1:23 AM
    Hometown: Vallejo

    Comment:

    If reworded I think this would be ok for lots more people. ( I join to this UNION Joseph Jones and John Jacobs bearing the same rights, responsbility and commitments of marriage.) are something of this nature. I know I would have voted no if it would have been worded something like this . I have talked to quite a few people and they agree with me. I don't beleive that anyone should be able to step in and take over a life, that two people have shared, because of a illness, disability, or death. CONSIDER TRYING IT THIS WAY OR AT LEAST GIVE IT SOME THOUGHT. Loving someone has no gender, color, or limits Love is blind and that is a fact


  • Name: ernesto
    Date posted: 2008-11-03 11:09 PM
    Hometown: Los Angeles

    Comment:

    Some people on both sides of the prop are not behaving with dignity. i think most people are upset that this is even being voted on. it is an unalienable right guaranteed in our constitution. It does not seem reasonable to ignore our founding principles as a nation. We should not deny people their rights as Americans.


  • Name: GS
    Date posted: 2008-10-28 7:57 PM
    Hometown: Moorpark, California

    Comment:

    Sometimes all one needs to do is look at the behavior of the opposing sides on an issue to discern on which side right and wrong rests. In my area, the opponents to Proposition 8 have stolen "Yes on Prop. 8" signs from people's lawns. Cars with pro 8 bumper stickers have been keyed and spray painted. Last Saturday, a group of pro 8 families stood on a corner of an intersection with pro 8 signs. The majority of vehicles passing by honked their horns and gave thumbs-up gestures or applause demonstrating their support. The majority of the anti 8 supporters shouted obscenities and flipped off the pro 8 supporters. One woman screamed (in front of her children) "Jesus loves everyone you f$%@ing b$#tch!!!". I've seen and heard enough to make my decision. It is clear that gay activist have no respect for the freedoms (freedom of speech) of those who oppose them on Prop 8 but expect tolerance from all.


  • Name: Glenn
    Date posted: 2008-10-28 7:43 PM
    Hometown: Moorpark, California

    Comment:

    What about the rights of children and parents? Aren't they more important than lifestyle choices? Judges and teachers can't redefine same sex marriage as "normal". Homosexuality is not "normal", it's contrary to nature. The union of a man and a women enables procreation. A man and a man, or a woman and a woman cannot produce a child. While I believe we should be tolerant and accepting of people's lifestyle choices, I draw the line when gay activist try to indoctrinate children that gay marriage is normal.


  • Name: Michael C. Silvestri
    Date posted: 2008-10-25 1:59 PM
    Hometown: Rancho Santa Margarita, CA

    Comment:

    I respect your opinion Tyler, as I do anyone's opinion. But why is it that people feel they have the right to rewrite the constitution? What is everyone so afraid of? How is it that if I choose to marry - period - that it should have any effect on anyone other than my spouse and me? Am I going to undermine anything in your life or lessen the power and influence and commitment you have to your own family? Have you stopped for one moment and thought that maybe I cherish what you have - that I believe and support it with all my being - that there is nothing more in this world that I would love to do than honor your, pay tribute to you - by emulating you? There is nothing that I can take from you Tyler that you are not willing to surrender yourself. I'm not that powerful an entity. I'm only a human being who loves no differently than you...and would die to support what you and your wife share. Can you say the same for me???


  • Name: Jim
    Date posted: 2008-10-20 6:09 PM
    Hometown: Studio City, CA

    Comment:

    I TOO am PRO-Marriage. The tradition of publicly committing to one partner is an esteemed one that many people honor. That is why I am elated that my partner of 10 years and I are getting married this Saturday. I am proud to be able to marry my partner with the support of my community of family and friends. Like Tyler, I believe that promoting traditional marriage is in the best interest of our youth and our society. I am proud and delighted that as a gay man I can partake in this wonderful tradition.


  • Name: tyler
    Date posted: 2008-10-16 2:21 AM
    Hometown: Roseville, CA

    Comment:

    I am "pro" traditional marriage. I feel strongly that traditional marriage is the healthiest environment for children, and that promoting traditional marriage is in the best interest of our youth and our society. I believe we can have a difference of opinion and still be civil and even be friends. From my perspective, the attacks and intolerance are coming from the opponents of Proposition 8. I have had two "Yes on Proposition 8" signs stolen from my front yard. I would be happy to (what I believe are compelling) reasons as to why I support proposition 8. Unfortunately it seems that far too many people are so "close minded" that they will not have a respectful interchange, but will use personal attacks against those with whom they disagree.


  • Name: Sandra DeE.
    Date posted: 2008-09-23 5:27 PM
    Hometown: Chicago, IL

    Comment:

    Oh, dear me. They're telling us that homophobes are now CLOSETED homophobes and don't want to publicly be counted. Cowards. If you're going to HATE - at least have the honesty and respect of being OPEN about it.


  • Name: Granny
    Date posted: 2008-09-23 3:37 PM
    Hometown: Menifee, CA

    Comment:

    Polls are not accurate at all. Please do not relax and think we have it won. We have a long, hard fight until November. Please remember to donate to the cause and come out and vote NO on proposition 8. Even if you say you are not voting for any candidate come out and vote NO on proposition 8 anyway. A lot of people are depending on us.


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