When it comes to
scandal, Democrats could be forgiven for thinking they
hit the political jackpot this summer. At Republicans'
expense.
First came the
disclosure that Louisiana U.S. senator David Vitter's
telephone number was listed in the records of an escort
service.
Then Sen. Ted
Stevens's home in Alaska was raided by federal agents as
part of a corruption investigation.
Now Sen. Larry
Craig of Idaho is recanting a guilty plea that grew out of
a police undercover operation in an airport men's room,
adding ''I am not gay'' for emphasis.
''This is a
serious matter,'' said the Senate Republican leadership, an
understatement for the ages.
No doubt, none of
this has been good for what some Republicans like to
call ''the brand.''
Craig
''represents the Republican Party,'' Rep. Pete Hoekstra said
on Wednesday, a frank acknowledgment that the party
may suffer, regardless of the Idaho senator's
political fate.
''I think it's
important for Republicans to step out right now and say,
'No, this behavior is not going to be tolerated,' ''
Hoekstra added.
Depending on how
far that attitude extends, it would mark a change from
the recent past, when House Republicans were slow to respond
to the scandal spawned by lobbyist Jack Abramoff.
Democrats
capitalized on voter dissatisfaction with the war in Iraq
last fall, but they also campaigned on a platform of
ending what they called a ''culture of corruption.''
It was a task made immeasurably easier by the
imprisonment of former representative Bob Ney, the
indictment of former majority leader Tom DeLay, and
the resignation of former congressman Mark Foley, the
Floridian who acknowledged writing salacious e-mails to
underage male House pages.
Not that
Democrats are without scandal. But they moved quickly in the
House to punish Rep. William Jefferson of Louisiana last
year, stripping him of his committee assignment even
before he was indicted in a corruption investigation.
It was a step
designed to make Republicans look more tolerant of alleged
wrongdoing--the very thing Hoekstra seemed to have in
mind in Craig's case.
DeLay, who
resigned amid allegations of misuse of campaign donations,
took up the Republican theme Thursday, saying his party
moves quickly against lawmakers when there is evidence
of guilt.
''Republicans
address them, Democrats reelect them,'' DeLay told NBC's
Today show, without giving an opinion on whether
Craig should resign.
Ironically, not
even Democrats claim they will win a seat in reliably
Republican Idaho next year, and Alaska has sent only
Republicans to Congress for more than a quarter
century.
But even before
news of Craig's guilty plea surfaced, Senate Democrats
possessed numerous other possibilities to pad their thin
majority.
''There are
several incumbent Republicans who are soft, partially
because of the president's performance and their
loyalty to the president,'' says J.B. Poersch,
executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign
Committee.
He cited
Colorado, where Sen. Wayne Allard is retiring, as well as
seats held by GOP incumbents John Sununu in New
Hampshire; Susan Collins in Maine; Gordon Smith in
Oregon; and Norm Coleman in Minnesota.
Privately,
several GOP strategists say the Colorado seat will be
extremely difficult to hold, and that among the incumbents,
Sununu appears headed for the toughest race.
Additionally,
Republican senators John Warner in Virginia--where
Democrats have elected governors in successive
elections--and Chuck Hagel in Nebraska are
flirting with retirements. Democrats have already sought to
line up challengers in case the seats become
open--former governor Mark Warner in Virginia
and former senator Bob Kerrey in Nebraska.
Compounding
Republican woes, filings with the Federal Election
Commission show their party's senatorial committee had
$6.5 million cash on hand at the end of July, while
the Democrats had $20.5 million, with a debt of $4
million.
Even the election
map is tilted away from the Republicans, who must
defend 22 of 34 seats on the ballot next year.
But Republicans
hope the political environment will change when the party
has a presidential nominee eager to move beyond the era of
George W. Bush.
''We have strong
senators in every single one of our races at this
point,'' said Rebecca Fisher, spokeswoman for the GOP
campaign committee. ''Sure, maybe there are some
retirements ahead of us, but we have a strong field,
and we're very positive about our position right now.''
Still,
Republicans failed to recruit Rep. Dennis Rehberg to run
against Sen. Max Baucus in Montana. Gov. Mike Rounds
in South Dakota shows no signs of wanting to challenge
Sen. Tim Johnson, who is recovering from a brain
hemorrhage but seems to be positioning himself to seek a new
term next year.
Fisher listed
Sen. Mary Landrieu of Louisiana as the top target for
Republicans, who are expected to field a challenger after
statewide elections this November. Fisher declined to
discuss names. But several GOP officials say they
expect state treasurer John Kennedy, who switched
parties on Monday, to enter the race as soon as he wins a
new term in his current post.
Fisher expressed
optimism that Republicans can regain a majority next
year, a prediction more optimistic than the one uttered
several weeks ago by Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky,
the GOP Senate leader.
''I think the
odds are kind of tough,'' he said this spring.
That was before
Vitter was forced to apologize, Stevens denied any
wrongdoing, and Craig declared he was innocent despite
pleading guilty. (David Espo, AP)