While many people
will work on their tans this summer, or on summer
reading lists or on not working too hard, two exceptions --
John McCain and Barack Obama -- and their underlings
will be working.
Working
industriously on an election that only one can win.
With 11 weeks to
the start of the Democratic convention -- and the GOP
event just days later -- Republican McCain and Democrat
Obama will be focused on strategy, fund-raising,
shoring up weak spots, and exploiting opportunities to
prepare themselves for the sprint to November 4.
Here's what
they'll be worrying about:
Shrinking the
electoral map.
From now on, the
great majority of Americans can be excused if they
barely realize a presidential election is under way. They
will see virtually no TV ads, visits by candidates or
local news coverage.
That's because
this campaign, like the last two, will focus on about 15
competitive states. Both parties see the other states as
reliably in their camps and not needing attention, or
totally out of reach and not worth the effort and
expense of trying to win them. In either case, these
states will largely be ignored.
McCain will start
by trying to hold the 31 states President Bush won in
2004 (which are almost identical to the 30 he won in 2000).
If he succeeds, he will be president.
Obama must claim
one or more of those states, while losing few if any of
the ones Al Gore and John Kerry won in their narrow losses
to Bush.
The magic number
is 18. That's how many electoral votes Obama must add to
Kerry's 252, from four years ago, to secure the presidency.
For example, if Obama carries Iowa (seven electoral
votes) and Missouri (11) without losing any Kerry
states, he would become president.
Other states
Obama will target as possible pickups are Florida, Ohio, New
Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, and at least one -- Virginia --
not normally within the Democrats' reach.
He must play
defense elsewhere in hopes of keeping McCain from snatching
Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Oregon, New
Hampshire, and possibly Maine, all of which Kerry won.
One possible
scenario would be excruciating for McCain. If he carried
every state Bush won in 2004 except Nevada, New Mexico, and
Iowa -- a plausible outcome _ then he and Obama would
each have 269 electoral votes. The House of
Representatives would break the tie, with each state
delegation having one vote. Democrats control more state
delegations than Republicans, so Obama would almost
surely be named president.
Choosing a
running mate.
Analysts question
whether a vice presidential choice seriously affects a
presidential election, but Obama calls it the most important
decision he will make before Election Day. He and
McCain have appointed small groups to vet contenders,
and if nothing else, the process will fascinate the
political chattering class for a while.
Obama first must
decide whether to tap Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, who
battled him to the end and has legions of fans who want her
on the ticket. Many political insiders think he will
turn elsewhere, but they do not agree on a
front-runner.
Possibilities
include four vanquished presidential rivals (besides
Clinton): New Mexico governor Bill Richardson, former
senator John Edwards of North Carolina, and senators
Joe Biden of Delaware and Chris Dodd of Connecticut.
Former senator Sam Nunn of Georgia is often mentioned,
as are two prominent female supporters of Obama: Missouri
senator Claire McCaskill and Kansas governor Kathleen
Sebelius.
Less conventional
choices for Obama would be Republican senator Chuck
Hagel of Nebraska or a prominent Clinton supporter, such as
Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana. Virginia alone (a
GOP-leaning state Obama would love to win) has three
possible running mates: Gov. Tim Kaine, Sen. Jim Webb, and
former governor Mark Warner, who is running for the Senate.
McCain is likely
to look at Republican governors Tim Pawlenty of
Minnesota and Charlie Crist of Florida, two battleground
states. Other possibilities include former
Massachusetts governor and presidential rival Mitt
Romney; Utah governor Jon Huntsman; South Carolina governor
Mark Sanford; Alaska governor Sarah Palin; and former
congressman and White House budget director Rob
Portman of Ohio, another key state.
A private-sector
choice might be Carly Fiorina, former chief executive of
Hewlett-Packard.
Defining your
opponent before he defines you.
Campaign
pollsters say the average person still knows relatively
little about Obama or McCain. Both men and their
allies will race to fill in the blanks with appealing
portraits of themselves and unflattering pictures of
the other.
Obama's theme is
''change,'' and he constantly says McCain would carry
out ''a third term'' of President Bush, whose approval
ratings approach historic lows. McCain portrays Obama
as inexperienced, naive, and more talk than action.
Youth and age
will be a key subtext. Obama does not directly allude to
McCain's age, which will hit 72 on the eve of the GOP
convention. But their age difference, 25 years, is the
largest in history for major party nominees. Obama
must show he's mature and ready; McCain must show he's
sharp and vigorous.
Both campaigns
are rapidly adding staff. Obama's team will focus on
introducing the first-term senator to voters who may not
know much about his biography, while on Monday he
began a two-week economic tour of the country.
Raising money.
Obama has
assembled an unprecedented political fund-raising machine,
raking in $264 million in 16 months. McCain has raised $115
million in 17 months. McCain, assured of his eventual
nomination, had his best fund-raising month in May,
raising $21.5 million. Obama, reeling from
controversies over his former pastor and still battling
Clinton, raised nearly $32 million in April.
Obama should
manage to continue this extraordinary accumulation of cash.
McCain is improving as he works with the Republican National
Committee to expand his donor base.
The Democrats'
challenge is to build the party's finances. The RNC, now
operating with McCain strategists in place, raised nearly
$24 million in May and had $53.6 million on hand at
the beginning of June. The Democratic National
Committee raised nearly $5 million in May and ended
the month with $4 million in the bank.
Obama is putting
his stamp on the DNC, and has installed a top strategist
to oversee general election operations. Separately, on
Sunday, Obama named Matthew Nugen, his campaign's
political director, to oversee operations for the
Democratic National Convention in Denver in August.
McCain is
preparing to accept about $85 million in public financing.
But he needs approval from the Federal Election
Commission, which cannot act until the Senate confirms
nominees required for a quorum.
Obama is expected
to turn down the hefty check and rely on private donors
to finance his run. (AP)