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A new poll shows Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas and former Sen. John E. Sununu locked in a statistical tie in New Hampshire’s 2026 U.S. Senate race.
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The Emerson College Polling survey, conducted March 21–23, finds Pappas at 45 percent and Sununu at 44 percent in a hypothetical general election matchup, with 11 percent undecided.
The race will determine who replaces retiring Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, who is not seeking reelection, and is expected to be one of the most closely watched and consequential Senate contests of the cycle.
The near tie aligns with broader polling trends. Aggregated surveys, including those tracked by major outlets like The New York Times, have consistently shown Pappas with only a narrow edge, typically within a few percentage points, well within the margin of error and far from secure.
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Pappas, who would become the first out gay man elected to the U.S. Senate if he wins, has been positioned by Democrats as a strong general election candidate with crossover appeal.
“I’ve never sought to make history,” Pappas told The Advocate in an interview last year. “That’s just happened along the way while I’ve tried to be of use to people in New Hampshire through public service.”
Still, he acknowledged the broader stakes of representation, adding that “we need to ensure that the community is represented in the halls of Congress.”
His campaign has also drawn early institutional backing from major LGBTQ+ political groups, including Equality PAC and the Human Rights Campaign PAC, which endorsed him in 2025, citing his record advancing equality legislation and support for LGBTQ+ rights.
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The Emerson poll also shows Sununu as the clear Republican front-runner. He leads former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown 48 percent to 19 percent in a potential GOP primary.
In a separate matchup, Pappas leads Brown more comfortably. The survey highlights familiar political divides that could shape the race. Women favor Pappas by nine points, while men back Sununu. Younger voters break decisively for the Democrat, while older voters lean Republican.
On the Democratic side, the primary field is taking shape but remains lopsided. Pappas faces two declared challengers, progressive activist Karishma Manzur and state Rep. Jared Sullivan, though neither has approached his level of fundraising, name recognition, or institutional support. The filing period is expected to open in June, with primaries for both parties set for September 8.
