Giuliani's Lead
is No Guarantee

Giuliani leads the field with 27 percent, down from a March high of 35 percent. The former New York mayor has bucked conventional wisdom thus far. He has been married three times and supports abortion rights and some gay rights yet is showing staying power in a contest in which conservative voters typically dominate. He has a slight edge among most demographics, and has gained some ground among white evangelical Christians.

His central argument -- he can beat the Democratic nominee -- appears to be resonating.

A national celebrity following the Sept. 11 attacks, Giuliani has embraced the singular moniker ''Rudy.'' It is the main logo of his campaign, and most people refer to him by first name only. They seem to feel like they know him. His what-you-see-is-what-you-get persona stokes that perception.

But his oddities -- answering his mobile phone during speeches -- and his frequent odes to his beloved New York -- cheering the Yankees everywhere he goes -- as well as his whiff of arrogance -- ''I'm probably one of the four or five best known Americans in the world'' -- may turn off voters.