And the leading
Republican presidential candidate is...none of the above.
The latest
Associated Press-Ipsos poll found that nearly a
quarter of Republicans are unwilling to back top-tier
hopefuls Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, John McCain, or
Mitt Romney, and no one candidate has emerged as the
clear front-runner among Christian evangelicals. Such
dissatisfaction underscores the volatility of the 2008 GOP
nomination fight.
In sharp
contrast, the Democratic race remains static, with Hillary
Rodham Clinton holding a sizable lead over Barack Obama. The
New York senator, who is white, also outpaces her
Illinois counterpart, who is black, among black and
Hispanic Democrats, according to a combined sample of
two months of polls.
A half year
before voting begins, the survey shows the White House race
is far more wide open on the Republican side than on the
Democratic. The uneven enthusiasm about the fields
also is reflected in fund-raising in which Democrats
outraised Republicans $80 million to $50 million from
April through June, continuing a trend from the year's first
three months.
''Democrats are
reasonably comfortable with the range of choices. The
Democratic attitude is that three or four of these guys
would be fine,'' David Redlawsk, a University of Iowa
political scientist. ''The Republicans don't have
that; particularly among the conservatives there's a
real split. They just don't see candidates who reflect their
interests and who they also view as viable.''
More Republicans
have become apathetic about their options over the past
month.
A hefty 23% can't
or won't say which candidate they would back, a jump
from the 14% who took a pass in June.
Giuliani's
popularity continued to decline steadily as he faced a spate
of headline headaches, came under increased scrutiny, and
saw the potential entry of Thompson into the mix; his
support is at 21% compared with 27% in June and 35% in
March.
The former New
York mayor is running virtually even with Thompson, who
has become a threat even without officially entering the
race. The actor and former Tennessee senator has
stayed steady at 19%. McCain, the Arizona senator who
is revamping his nearly broke campaign, clocked in a
bit lower at 15%, while Romney, the former Massachusetts
governor, remained at 11%.
None of the top
candidates has a clear lead among Christian evangelicals,
a critical part of the GOP base that has had considerable
sway in past Republican primaries. Giuliani, a
thrice-married backer of abortion rights and gay
rights, had 20% support--roughly even with Thompson
and McCain, who have one divorce each in their pasts.
Romney, a Mormon who has been married for three
decades, was in the single digits.
Among the legions
of undecided Republicans is Barbara Skogman, 72, a
retired legal assistant from Cedar Rapids, Iowa. She isn't
at all excited about any of the prospects.
''I'm looking for
a strong honest person. Do you know of any?'' she
joked. She had an easy time detailing why she was queasy
about each of the most serious contenders. ''Isn't
that sad?'' Then she reached a conclusion: ''I just
don't know.''
Andrew E. Smith,
a polling expert at the University of New Hampshire,
said the number of voters in flux is no surprise, given that
the primaries aren't for another six months. ''People
really don't decide who to vote for until the last
couple months or days,'' he said.
On the Democratic
side, 13% declined to back a candidate, and of those
who picked a candidate, some may be willing to change their
minds.
Barbara Hicks,
29, an English tutor in Arlington, Va., said her friends
got her to lean toward former North Carolina senator John
Edwards, but she added, ''It's not set in stone.... I
don't favor him very, very strongly.''
The only other
sign that Democrats are at all agitated about their
choices is the continued support for Al Gore, the former
vice president and 2000 Democratic presidential
nominee, who says he's not running. His popularity has
slid some to 15%.
Otherwise,
Clinton kept her strong advantage over Obama; her backers
accounted for 36% of Democrats to his 20%, while support for
Edwards remained essentially unchanged at 11%.
While neither
Obama nor Edwards has threatened Clinton in national polls,
both are giving her a chase in other areas. Obama leads her
in fund-raising for the primary, and Edwards is
running stronger in Iowa.
Nationally, the
combined sample found Clinton has the edge among black
Democrats, with 46% of their support to Obama's 33%. Her
advantage is even wider among Hispanics; she has the
support of 45% of them to Obama's 17%. New Mexico
governor Bill Richardson, whose mother was Mexican, had
the backing of just 5% of Hispanics and virtually no support
among blacks.
The AP-Ipsos poll
was conducted by telephone July 9-11 with 1,004
adults, including 346 Republicans and 477 Democrats.
The margin of sampling error for the full sample is
plus or minus three percentage points, plus or minus
5.5 percentage points for Republicans and 4.5 percentage
points for Democrats. For the combined June and July
samples, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus
3.5 percentage points for Republicans and plus or
minus three percentage points for Democrats. (Liz Sidoti,
AP)
