Virginia researchers debunk the claim that most trans kids ‘grow out of it’

For years, anti-transgender activists have claimed that the vast majority of children and young adults who come out as trans, nonbinary, or otherwise gender-nonconforming are simply going through a phase. That argument holds that many will eventually reject their gender identity and return to living as the sex they were assigned at birth. Scientists at Virginia Commonwealth University now say the claim is false and that they have the research to back it up.

According to their new study, this all started with a blog post in 2016 that fueled “political and legal action restricting gender-affirming care” with the claim that “60%–90% of youth presenting for care 'desist' from a transgender identity."

When VCU researchers performed statistical analyses of that published scientific research, including the 11 studies compiled in that widely cited blog post, along with five more recent publications, they found that “almost any stance on gender-affirming care for minors could be supported by different statistical analyses of the same data,” as Phys.org reported Monday.

Related: Major Virginia medical center stops gender-affirming care for minors after Trump’s executive order

“We should rely on accuracy with our science, and we should rely on accurate science to guide legislation,” Catherine Wall, an assistant professor of psychology in the College of Humanities and Sciences and the study’s lead author, told Phys.org. The results of the study appear in the journal Psychology of Sexual Orientation and Gender Diversity.

Here’s where the data gets even more striking for families concerned about children identifying as trans, nonbinary, or genderqueer: the researchers’ quantitative meta-analysis found that youth “desistance” rates, meaning the likelihood that a young person stops identifying as trans, could be estimated as low as 0 percent or as high as 100 percent, depending on how the studies’ data were interpreted.

In other words, the researchers found that the earlier studies were so inconsistent that they could be used to justify almost any conclusion.

They also found that rates of persistence of transgender identity, meaning kids who come out as trans and continue identifying that way, could likewise range from 0 percent to 100 percent, depending on the analysis. Again, that means there is no reliable scientific proof that most children will either detransition or remain trans based on those earlier studies alone.

Researchers say much of the problem stems from the fact that many of the original studies were conducted before 1990 and relied on small sample sizes, making them scientifically unreliable by modern standards.

As The Advocate reported, opponents of gender-affirming care for trans kids cited the original 11 studies in arguments that led to the Supreme Court’s 2025 United States v. Skrmetti decision. The justices ruled 6-3 to uphold Tennessee’s law banning gender-affirming care, including hormone therapy and puberty blockers, for transgender youth, dealing a historic setback to the rights of trans Americans and the families who support them.

Wall said the new study undermines the statistical foundation for that ruling, which relied in part on the narrative that most transgender youth eventually desist.

Related: Utah Republicans ignore study supporting gender-affirming care for trans youth. It's research they demanded

"We were particularly interested in examining this idea of the concept of trans identity desistance because it's a number that has been bandied about for years as if it's 100% accurate," Wall told Phys.org. "And we wanted to take a deeper look, especially because it's currently being used for things like legislation and bans of best-practice gender-affirming care in 26 states."

And the political consequences do not stop there. As The Advocate reported earlier this month, Republicans in the House of Representatives are expected to move forward on a bill that would give the federal government unprecedented power to pressure public schools into removing books and materials that acknowledge the existence of transgender people.

Gender dysphoria in minors is treated through individualized care that can include mental health support, social support, and, for some adolescents who have reached puberty, puberty-delaying medication or hormone therapy after careful evaluation. Major U.S. medical groups, including the American Academy of Pediatrics, the American Medical Association, and the Endocrine Society, support access to evidence-based gender-affirming care and oppose blanket bans. The Endocrine Society’s clinical guidance says hormone treatment is not recommended for prepubertal children, while puberty blockers may be considered after puberty begins, and hormone therapy may be considered later with multidisciplinary assessment and informed consent.

H.R. 7661, introduced by GOP Rep. Mary Miller of Illinois and titled the “Stop the Sexualization of Children Act,” is claimed by its supporters as a measure to shield children from inappropriate content. But buried in the text is language that has alarmed educators, librarians, and LGBTQ+ advocates. The bill defines “sexually oriented material” to include anything that “involves gender dysphoria or ‘transgenderism,” a term used to dehumanize trans people as part of an ideology as opposed to a human reality.

Related: Virginia school board settles lawsuit with students accused of harassing trans classmate

Related: Virginia school board adopts anti-transgender policy and blocks LGBTQ+ club

If enacted, the legislation would bar schools that receive federal Elementary and Secondary Education Act funds from using those funds for any program, activity, or material involving the prohibited category. The penalty is severe: districts that refuse to comply could lose federal education funding. For schools already operating on tight budgets, critics say, that threat alone could trigger widespread preemptive censorship.

The reach of the bill extends far beyond library shelves. As The Advocate previously reported, when the House Committee on Education and the Workforce advanced the measure last month, the wording was broad enough to affect anti-bullying resources, counseling materials, transgender student support groups, and Gay-Straight Alliance programming if those programs are part of federally funded school operations.

All of that, researchers argue, stems in part from a blog post built on studies that were too limited and inconsistent to support the sweeping political conclusions drawn from them.