Pete Buttigieg emerges as early favorite for 2028 Democratic nomination

Pete Buttigieg is leading the field of potential Democratic presidential contenders for 2028, according to a new national poll.

The latest Emerson College Polling survey, released this week, found Buttigieg at 18 percent support among Democratic primary voters, narrowly ahead of California Gov. Gavin Newsom at 16 percent. New York U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez followed at 11 percent, while Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and former Vice President Kamala Harris each received 10 percent. Another 18 percent of voters said they remain undecided.

The results offer an early snapshot of a Democratic Party still searching for its next national leader. No candidate commands broad support, and the field remains remarkably fluid. But Buttigieg's position atop the poll marks the latest sign that the former South Bend, Indiana, mayor and Biden transportation secretary has successfully translated the historic breakthrough of his 2020 campaign into lasting influence within the party.

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Six years ago, Buttigieg became the first out gay candidate to win a presidential nominating contest when he prevailed in the Iowa caucuses. At the time, his candidacy was questioned as a test of whether an LGBTQ+ candidate could compete nationally.

The poll suggests Buttigieg has benefited as Democrats continue to sort through competing visions for the party's future.

Newsom has emerged as one of the most visible Democratic critics of President Donald Trump's second administration, frequently appearing on conservative media and giving national television interviews to sharpen his profile. Ocasio-Cortez has drawn large crowds alongside U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders during their "Fighting Oligarchy" tour. Shapiro has gained attention as a pragmatic governor in a crucial swing state, while Harris remains a nationally recognized figure after serving as vice president.

Yet none has broken away from the pack. The Emerson survey found that Buttigieg has gained support since the firm’s February poll, while Newsom has lost ground. Buttigieg rose from 16 percent to 18 percent, while Newsom fell from 20 percent to 16 percent. Harris also slipped from 13 percent to 10 percent.

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Buttigieg has spent much of the past year building his profile through media appearances, campaign stops, speeches, and political organizing. Unlike some potential contenders, he currently holds no elected office.

The survey also highlights a notable evolution in LGBTQ+ political representation.

An out gay candidate leading a national presidential primary poll would have been nearly unimaginable for much of modern American history. While early polling more than two years before the next presidential election is far from predictive, Buttigieg’s standing reflects how dramatically attitudes toward LGBTQ+ candidates have changed since he first launched his long-shot White House bid in 2019.

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The poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters nationwide between May 25 and May 27 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.